Turnover Index Week 13

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 13. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Once again, we went 1-1 with our Week 12 bets, and our bankroll dropped by $6 from $1,052 to $1,046. We are now 6-4 against the spread on the season, with an ROI of 4.6%. Bets are sized according to the Kelly criterion.

Here are the 2016 season to date results:

week	bets	won	starting bankroll	amount bet	profits	ending bankroll
6	1	0	$1,000	$36 (3.6%)	($36)	$963
7	1	1	$963	$10 (1.1%)	$9	$973
8	1	1	$973	$38 (4.0%)	$35	$1,008
9	3	2	$1,008	$64 (6.4%)	$51	$1,060
10	2	1	$1,060	$15 (1.5%)	($7)	$1,052
12	2	1	$1,052	$13 (1.3%)	($6)	$1,046

We have two bets this week. We are betting 1.4% of our bankroll on the Jaguars to cover against the Broncos and 0.9% on the Falcons to cover against the Chiefs.