Turnover Index Week 9
Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 9. I distributed prior picks this season via tweet, but now have time to put these in a proper blog post. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.
Our single week 8 pick was successful (Bears over Vikings), bringing us to 2-1 on the season, and an ROI of 0.8%. Bets are sized according to the Kelly criterion. We finished last season with somewhat mixed results. After factoring in results from our week 16 picks, we were 11-7-1 against the spread, but with a negative ROI of -4.8%, meaning we lost on bets where we were risking a greater fraction of our bankroll.
Here are the 2016 season to date results:
We have three bets this week, and we are wagering 6.7% of our bankroll.
Our single week 8 pick was successful (Bears over Vikings), bringing us to 2-1 on the season, and an ROI of 0.8%. Bets are sized according to the Kelly criterion. We finished last season with somewhat mixed results. After factoring in results from our week 16 picks, we were 11-7-1 against the spread, but with a negative ROI of -4.8%, meaning we lost on bets where we were risking a greater fraction of our bankroll.
Here are the 2016 season to date results:
| week | bets | won | starting bankroll | amount bet | profits | ending bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1 | 0 | $1,000 | $36 (3.6%) | ($36) | $963 |
| 7 | 1 | 1 | $963 | $10 (1.1%) | $9 | $973 |
| 8 | 1 | 1 | $973 | $38 (4.0%) | $35 | $1,008 |
We have three bets this week, and we are wagering 6.7% of our bankroll.
| turnovers | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| game | away | home | diff | per game | pick | prob | bet |
| Titans @ Chargers | 7 | 15 | 8 | 1.0 | Titans | 52.6% | 0.4% |
| Jaguars @ Chiefs | 5 | 16 | 11 | 1.6 | Jaguars | 54.0% | 3.5% |
| Lions @ Vikings | 7 | 16 | 9 | 1.4 | Lions | 53.6% | 2.6% |
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