Turnover Index Week 10

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 10. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

We went 2-1 with last week's bets, bringing us to 4-2 on the season, and an ROI of 6.0%. Bets are sized according to the Kelly criterion. Fortunately, our one loss was on a game that was just barely above the breakeven point, so it only cost us 0.4% of our bankroll. The model was more confident on our two winning picks, allowing us for a nice return on our 6.1% investment.

Here are the 2016 season to date results:

week	bets	won	starting bankroll	amount bet	profits	ending bankroll
6	1	0	$1,000	$36 (3.6%)	($36)	$963
7	1	1	$963	$10 (1.1%)	$9	$973
8	1	1	$973	$38 (4.0%)	$35	$1,008
9	3	2	$1,008	$64 (6.4%)	$51	$1,060

We have two bets this week, and we are wagering 1.5% of our bankroll. One of those bets is against the Chiefs. The 6-2 Chiefs lead the league in defensive turnovers, but they have been here before. In 2013, the Chiefs amassed 20 defensive turnovers in its first 8 games, and went 8-0 in the process. However, they finished the season 3-5, and lost in the first round of the playoffs (against the Colts, in the second biggest playoff collapse of all time).