NFL Playoff Implications - Week 5

Here are playoff implications for week five of the NFL season. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team. The results of the Thursday night game have already been taken into account.

Ranking Week 5 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 3 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
CIN @ DAL	33.8%
BUF @ STL	28.8%
WAS @ BAL	22.8%
SD @ OAK	21.6%
NYG @ GB	21.0%
TB @ CAR	18.4%
ATL @ DEN	17.2%
PHI @ DET	14.9%
HOU @ MIN	12.2%
CHI @ IND	11.0%
NYJ @ PIT	10.5%
TEN @ MIA	4.6%
NE @ CLE	1.6%

This week's highest leverage game is an inter-conference matchup between the Bengals and the Cowboys. Both teams are in the playoff hunt, each with a decent chance at winning one of the wild card spots (making for a lot of teams with a rooting interest).

The lowest leverage game pits the Patriots (with Tom Brady) against the Browns. The Patriots playoff odds only swing by 3%, from 95% to 98%, depending on the outcome of this game. As for the Browns, this game actually has no statistical significance on their 0.03% chance of making the playoffs this year. On the bright side, they already have a 50% chance of picking first in the draft next year.

Beyond Week 5

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 6-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
13	KC @ ATL	31.7%
16	ATL @ CAR	31.3%
12	ARZ @ ATL	31.3%
11	BAL @ DAL	31.1%
12	CAR @ OAK	30.6%
8	ARZ @ CAR	30.5%
10	CIN @ NYG	30.3%
9	CAR @ STL	29.7%
16	CIN @ HOU	29.7%
17	ARZ @ STL	29.4%

Week 5 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 5. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

OR Select Team:

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
SD @ OAK	62.0%	OAK	43.6%	29.2%	52.4%	23.3%	11.3%
TB @ CAR	80.1%	CAR	54.7%	34.2%	59.8%	25.6%	10.2%
NYG @ GB	73.0%	GB	72.5%	56.2%	78.5%	22.3%	9.9%
NYG @ GB	73.0%	NYG	25.2%	40.7%	19.5%	-21.3%	9.4%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	CIN	42.3%	50.8%	32.5%	-18.3%	9.1%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	STL	33.8%	24.4%	40.9%	16.5%	8.2%
WAS @ BAL	63.7%	BAL	34.9%	24.2%	40.9%	16.7%	8.1%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	DAL	36.5%	29.1%	45.0%	16.0%	8.0%
ATL @ DEN	65.6%	ATL	58.6%	69.6%	52.8%	-16.8%	8.0%
PHI @ DET	39.6%	PHI	72.7%	79.0%	63.0%	-16.0%	7.8%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	BUF	23.0%	31.0%	16.9%	-14.1%	7.0%
SD @ OAK	62.0%	SD	9.9%	17.6%	5.2%	-12.4%	6.0%
NYJ @ PIT	73.0%	NYJ	9.9%	19.4%	6.4%	-13.0%	5.8%
CHI @ IND	65.9%	IND	19.5%	12.2%	23.3%	11.1%	5.3%
HOU @ MIN	71.7%	HOU	76.4%	84.4%	73.2%	-11.2%	5.0%
NYJ @ PIT	73.0%	PIT	90.7%	83.4%	93.4%	10.0%	4.5%
WAS @ BAL	63.7%	WAS	11.9%	17.6%	8.6%	-8.9%	4.3%
TB @ CAR	80.1%	TB	5.7%	13.9%	3.7%	-10.2%	4.1%
ATL @ DEN	65.6%	CAR	54.7%	49.9%	57.2%	7.3%	3.5%
PHI @ DET	39.6%	DET	5.0%	2.5%	8.8%	6.3%	3.1%
ATL @ DEN	65.6%	DEN	92.8%	88.7%	95.0%	6.3%	3.0%
TB @ CAR	80.1%	ATL	58.6%	64.5%	57.1%	-7.4%	2.9%
CHI @ IND	65.9%	HOU	76.4%	79.7%	74.7%	-5.0%	2.4%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	ARZ	39.7%	42.3%	37.7%	-4.5%	2.2%
HOU @ MIN	71.7%	IND	19.5%	16.2%	20.8%	4.6%	2.1%
TEN @ MIA	62.0%	TEN	4.3%	7.0%	2.7%	-4.2%	2.0%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	BAL	34.9%	33.1%	36.9%	3.8%	1.9%
HOU @ MIN	71.7%	MIN	96.3%	93.3%	97.5%	4.2%	1.9%
TEN @ MIA	62.0%	MIA	3.7%	1.3%	5.2%	3.8%	1.9%
WAS @ BAL	63.7%	CIN	42.3%	44.4%	41.1%	-3.4%	1.6%
SD @ OAK	62.0%	KC	41.9%	43.7%	40.7%	-3.0%	1.5%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	KC	41.9%	40.5%	43.4%	2.9%	1.5%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	PHI	72.7%	73.9%	71.3%	-2.7%	1.3%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	SEA	81.6%	83.2%	80.5%	-2.7%	1.3%
HOU @ MIN	71.7%	JAC	8.8%	6.7%	9.6%	2.9%	1.3%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	NYG	25.2%	26.4%	23.8%	-2.6%	1.3%
CHI @ IND	65.9%	CHI	2.4%	4.1%	1.5%	-2.6%	1.2%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	CIN	42.3%	40.9%	43.3%	2.4%	1.2%
PHI @ DET	39.6%	NYG	25.2%	24.3%	26.7%	2.4%	1.2%
WAS @ BAL	63.7%	OAK	43.6%	45.2%	42.7%	-2.4%	1.2%
WAS @ BAL	63.7%	KC	41.9%	43.4%	41.0%	-2.4%	1.1%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	KC	41.9%	40.6%	42.8%	2.3%	1.1%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	PHI	72.7%	73.9%	71.8%	-2.1%	1.1%
NE @ CLE	9.8%	NE	98.2%	98.6%	95.0%	-3.5%	1.0%
SD @ OAK	62.0%	BAL	34.9%	36.2%	34.0%	-2.1%	1.0%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	OAK	43.6%	42.7%	44.7%	2.0%	1.0%
SD @ OAK	62.0%	CIN	42.3%	43.5%	41.5%	-2.0%	1.0%
WAS @ BAL	63.7%	PHI	72.7%	71.4%	73.4%	2.0%	1.0%
PHI @ DET	39.6%	DAL	36.5%	35.7%	37.7%	2.0%	1.0%
WAS @ BAL	63.7%	BUF	23.0%	24.3%	22.3%	-2.0%	1.0%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	BUF	23.0%	22.1%	24.0%	1.9%	0.9%
ATL @ DEN	65.6%	OAK	43.6%	44.9%	42.9%	-2.0%	0.9%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	OAK	43.6%	42.6%	44.4%	1.9%	0.9%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	ARZ	39.7%	40.5%	38.7%	-1.8%	0.9%
WAS @ BAL	63.7%	DAL	36.5%	35.4%	37.2%	1.8%	0.9%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	BAL	34.9%	33.9%	35.6%	1.8%	0.9%
ATL @ DEN	65.6%	DAL	36.5%	35.4%	37.1%	1.7%	0.8%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	GB	72.5%	73.3%	71.6%	-1.6%	0.8%
NYG @ GB	73.0%	PHI	72.7%	71.4%	73.2%	1.8%	0.8%
CHI @ IND	65.9%	JAC	8.8%	9.9%	8.2%	-1.6%	0.8%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	PIT	90.7%	90.0%	91.5%	1.5%	0.8%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	STL	33.8%	34.5%	33.0%	-1.5%	0.7%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	SD	9.9%	9.2%	10.7%	1.5%	0.7%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	ATL	58.6%	59.4%	58.0%	-1.5%	0.7%
TEN @ MIA	62.0%	HOU	76.4%	75.5%	77.0%	1.5%	0.7%
WAS @ BAL	63.7%	IND	19.5%	20.5%	19.0%	-1.5%	0.7%
WAS @ BAL	63.7%	NYG	25.2%	24.3%	25.7%	1.4%	0.7%
HOU @ MIN	71.7%	GB	72.5%	73.6%	72.1%	-1.5%	0.7%
WAS @ BAL	63.7%	SD	9.9%	10.8%	9.4%	-1.4%	0.7%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	DAL	36.5%	37.3%	35.9%	-1.3%	0.7%
PHI @ DET	39.6%	WAS	11.9%	11.4%	12.7%	1.3%	0.7%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	GB	72.5%	73.2%	71.9%	-1.3%	0.6%
HOU @ MIN	71.7%	TEN	4.3%	3.3%	4.7%	1.4%	0.6%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	WAS	11.9%	12.5%	11.2%	-1.3%	0.6%
WAS @ BAL	63.7%	PIT	90.7%	91.5%	90.2%	-1.3%	0.6%
PHI @ DET	39.6%	BAL	34.9%	35.4%	34.1%	-1.3%	0.6%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	NYJ	9.9%	9.3%	10.6%	1.2%	0.6%
CHI @ IND	65.9%	CIN	42.3%	43.1%	41.9%	-1.3%	0.6%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	ATL	58.6%	59.2%	58.0%	-1.2%	0.6%
TB @ CAR	80.1%	ARZ	39.7%	40.9%	39.4%	-1.5%	0.6%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	WAS	11.9%	12.6%	11.4%	-1.2%	0.6%
HOU @ MIN	71.7%	KC	41.9%	40.9%	42.2%	1.3%	0.6%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	CAR	54.7%	55.2%	54.1%	-1.2%	0.6%
NYG @ GB	73.0%	STL	33.8%	34.7%	33.4%	-1.3%	0.6%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	IND	19.5%	19.0%	20.1%	1.1%	0.6%
PHI @ DET	39.6%	GB	72.5%	72.1%	73.2%	1.1%	0.5%
ATL @ DEN	65.6%	TB	5.7%	4.9%	6.1%	1.2%	0.5%
NE @ CLE	9.8%	BUF	23.0%	22.8%	24.6%	1.8%	0.5%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	SEA	81.6%	82.1%	81.1%	-1.1%	0.5%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	DEN	92.8%	92.3%	93.3%	1.0%	0.5%
CHI @ IND	65.9%	NYG	25.2%	24.5%	25.6%	1.1%	0.5%
SD @ OAK	62.0%	BUF	23.0%	23.7%	22.6%	-1.0%	0.5%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	PIT	90.7%	90.1%	91.1%	1.0%	0.5%
ATL @ DEN	65.6%	NO	3.1%	2.5%	3.5%	1.0%	0.5%
WAS @ BAL	63.7%	NYJ	9.9%	10.5%	9.6%	-0.9%	0.4%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	NYJ	9.9%	9.5%	10.3%	0.8%	0.4%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	SD	9.9%	9.5%	10.3%	0.8%	0.4%
WAS @ BAL	63.7%	DEN	92.8%	93.3%	92.6%	-0.8%	0.4%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	MIA	3.7%	3.3%	4.1%	0.7%	0.4%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	DET	5.0%	5.3%	4.6%	-0.7%	0.4%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	DEN	92.8%	92.5%	93.2%	0.7%	0.3%
TB @ CAR	80.1%	NO	3.1%	3.7%	3.0%	-0.8%	0.3%
SD @ OAK	62.0%	MIA	3.7%	4.1%	3.5%	-0.6%	0.3%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	NE	98.2%	97.9%	98.5%	0.6%	0.3%
NYG @ GB	73.0%	TB	5.7%	6.2%	5.5%	-0.7%	0.3%
CHI @ IND	65.9%	TEN	4.3%	4.7%	4.1%	-0.6%	0.3%
NYJ @ PIT	73.0%	TB	5.7%	5.2%	5.9%	0.6%	0.3%
TB @ CAR	80.1%	MIN	96.3%	96.9%	96.2%	-0.7%	0.3%
CIN @ DAL	46.7%	CHI	2.4%	2.6%	2.1%	-0.5%	0.3%
WAS @ BAL	63.7%	NE	98.2%	98.5%	98.0%	-0.5%	0.2%
BUF @ STL	56.9%	CHI	2.4%	2.6%	2.2%	-0.4%	0.2%