NFL Playoff Implications - Week 1

Playoff implications return for the 2016 season. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team. The results of the Thursday night season opener have already been taken into account.

Ranking Week 1 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 1 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
OAK @ NO	26.7%
NYG @ DAL	24.6%
MIN @ TEN	22.0%
BUF @ BAL	19.3%
CIN @ NYJ	18.9%
PIT @ WAS	18.1%
DET @ IND	17.3%
SD @ KC	16.6%
TB @ ATL	15.8%
NE @ ARZ	15.3%
CHI @ HOU	14.9%
GB @ JAC	14.3%
MIA @ SEA	10.8%
STL @ SF	4.1%
CLE @ PHI	2.2%

This week's highest leverage game is a cross-conference matchup between the Saints and the Raiders.

Beyond Week 1

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 2-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
2	KC @ HOU	27.1%
5	HOU @ MIN	25.8%
6	BAL @ NYG	25.2%
14	HOU @ IND	25.0%
12	CAR @ OAK	24.9%
6	CAR @ NO	24.7%
11	BAL @ DAL	24.7%
7	NO @ KC	24.5%
6	IND @ HOU	24.4%
6	KC @ OAK	24.3%

Week 1 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 1. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

NE@ARZ TB@ATL BUF@BAL NYG@DAL CAR@DEN CHI@HOU DET@IND GB@JAC SD@KC OAK@NO CIN@NYJ CLE@PHI MIA@SEA STL@SF MIN@TEN PIT@WAS  OR Select Team: ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ OAK PHI PIT SD SEA SF STL TB TEN WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
NYG @ DAL	49.7%	NYG	64.8%	76.3%	53.0%	-23.3%	11.7%
NYG @ DAL	49.7%	DAL	34.3%	22.9%	45.9%	23.1%	11.5%
SD @ KC	71.7%	KC	47.4%	32.3%	53.3%	21.0%	9.5%
BUF @ BAL	60.4%	BUF	33.3%	44.9%	25.7%	-19.1%	9.4%
CIN @ NYJ	41.3%	CIN	75.2%	82.4%	64.8%	-17.6%	8.7%
BUF @ BAL	60.4%	BAL	29.7%	19.3%	36.5%	17.3%	8.4%
CIN @ NYJ	41.3%	NYJ	25.9%	18.9%	35.8%	16.9%	8.3%
OAK @ NO	55.2%	OAK	53.8%	62.3%	46.8%	-15.5%	7.7%
MIN @ TEN	41.0%	MIN	50.0%	56.2%	40.9%	-15.3%	7.5%
OAK @ NO	55.2%	NO	38.2%	30.3%	44.6%	14.4%	7.1%
PIT @ WAS	39.4%	WAS	36.4%	30.8%	45.0%	14.3%	7.0%
TB @ ATL	58.7%	TB	19.1%	27.4%	13.3%	-14.1%	7.0%
CHI @ HOU	70.3%	HOU	56.4%	46.0%	60.8%	14.8%	6.8%
DET @ IND	60.5%	IND	30.5%	22.4%	35.8%	13.4%	6.6%
SD @ KC	71.7%	SD	13.7%	23.8%	9.7%	-14.1%	6.4%
TB @ ATL	58.7%	ATL	17.3%	9.7%	22.6%	12.9%	6.4%
NE @ ARZ	73.2%	NE	73.3%	81.9%	70.1%	-11.7%	5.2%
MIN @ TEN	41.0%	TEN	18.6%	14.3%	24.7%	10.3%	5.1%
NE @ ARZ	73.2%	ARZ	80.7%	72.3%	83.7%	11.4%	5.1%
GB @ JAC	32.7%	GB	81.3%	84.7%	74.2%	-10.5%	4.9%
MIA @ SEA	80.5%	SEA	78.9%	69.1%	81.2%	12.1%	4.8%
DET @ IND	60.5%	DET	13.0%	18.2%	9.6%	-8.7%	4.2%
PIT @ WAS	39.4%	PIT	88.1%	91.5%	82.9%	-8.6%	4.2%
GB @ JAC	32.7%	JAC	13.1%	10.3%	18.8%	8.5%	4.0%
STL @ SF	41.4%	STL	7.6%	10.2%	3.9%	-6.3%	3.1%
CHI @ HOU	70.3%	CHI	9.0%	13.5%	7.2%	-6.3%	2.9%
MIA @ SEA	80.5%	MIA	8.2%	13.8%	6.8%	-7.0%	2.8%
DET @ IND	60.5%	HOU	56.4%	59.4%	54.4%	-4.9%	2.4%
CHI @ HOU	70.3%	IND	30.5%	33.6%	29.2%	-4.4%	2.0%
OAK @ NO	55.2%	CAR	65.2%	67.4%	63.4%	-4.0%	2.0%
OAK @ NO	55.2%	KC	47.4%	45.3%	49.1%	3.8%	1.9%
PIT @ WAS	39.4%	NYG	64.8%	66.1%	62.6%	-3.5%	1.7%
MIN @ TEN	41.0%	HOU	56.4%	57.8%	54.4%	-3.4%	1.7%
CHI @ HOU	70.3%	TEN	18.6%	21.0%	17.6%	-3.5%	1.6%
PIT @ WAS	39.4%	DAL	34.3%	35.5%	32.6%	-2.9%	1.4%
CLE @ PHI	62.3%	PHI	4.0%	2.2%	5.1%	2.9%	1.4%
GB @ JAC	32.7%	MIN	50.0%	49.0%	51.9%	2.9%	1.4%
OAK @ NO	55.2%	DEN	31.7%	30.3%	32.8%	2.4%	1.2%
MIN @ TEN	41.0%	GB	81.3%	80.3%	82.7%	2.5%	1.2%
DET @ IND	60.5%	TEN	18.6%	20.1%	17.6%	-2.5%	1.2%
NE @ ARZ	73.2%	BUF	33.3%	31.5%	34.0%	2.5%	1.1%
GB @ JAC	32.7%	HOU	56.4%	57.2%	54.9%	-2.3%	1.1%
CHI @ HOU	70.3%	JAC	13.1%	14.7%	12.4%	-2.3%	1.0%
OAK @ NO	55.2%	BAL	29.7%	28.6%	30.6%	2.0%	1.0%
MIN @ TEN	41.0%	IND	30.5%	31.3%	29.3%	-2.0%	1.0%
NE @ ARZ	73.2%	WAS	36.4%	38.0%	35.8%	-2.2%	1.0%
NE @ ARZ	73.2%	NYJ	25.9%	24.3%	26.4%	2.2%	1.0%
MIN @ TEN	41.0%	TB	19.1%	18.3%	20.2%	1.8%	0.9%
DET @ IND	60.5%	JAC	13.1%	14.2%	12.4%	-1.8%	0.9%
TB @ ATL	58.7%	HOU	56.4%	57.4%	55.7%	-1.8%	0.9%
MIA @ SEA	80.5%	MIN	50.0%	51.7%	49.5%	-2.2%	0.9%
MIN @ TEN	41.0%	WAS	36.4%	35.7%	37.4%	1.7%	0.9%
OAK @ NO	55.2%	TB	19.1%	20.0%	18.3%	-1.7%	0.8%
CIN @ NYJ	41.3%	NE	73.3%	74.0%	72.3%	-1.6%	0.8%
CLE @ PHI	62.3%	CLE	1.4%	2.4%	0.8%	-1.6%	0.8%
DET @ IND	60.5%	MIN	50.0%	49.0%	50.6%	1.6%	0.8%
PIT @ WAS	39.4%	BAL	29.7%	29.1%	30.6%	1.6%	0.8%
SD @ KC	71.7%	OAK	53.8%	55.0%	53.3%	-1.7%	0.8%
MIN @ TEN	41.0%	ARZ	80.7%	80.0%	81.6%	1.5%	0.8%
PIT @ WAS	39.4%	GB	81.3%	81.9%	80.3%	-1.5%	0.8%
OAK @ NO	55.2%	MIN	50.0%	50.8%	49.3%	-1.5%	0.7%
STL @ SF	41.4%	SEA	78.9%	78.2%	79.7%	1.5%	0.7%
OAK @ NO	55.2%	ATL	17.3%	18.1%	16.6%	-1.5%	0.7%
MIA @ SEA	80.5%	ARZ	80.7%	82.1%	80.3%	-1.8%	0.7%
NE @ ARZ	73.2%	NO	38.2%	39.4%	37.8%	-1.6%	0.7%
OAK @ NO	55.2%	BUF	33.3%	32.5%	33.9%	1.4%	0.7%
BUF @ BAL	60.4%	NE	73.3%	72.4%	73.8%	1.4%	0.7%
OAK @ NO	55.2%	SEA	78.9%	79.6%	78.2%	-1.4%	0.7%
OAK @ NO	55.2%	SD	13.7%	12.9%	14.3%	1.4%	0.7%
OAK @ NO	55.2%	NYJ	25.9%	25.1%	26.5%	1.4%	0.7%
TB @ ATL	58.7%	NYJ	25.9%	25.0%	26.4%	1.4%	0.7%
NE @ ARZ	73.2%	SEA	78.9%	79.9%	78.5%	-1.5%	0.7%
DET @ IND	60.5%	NYG	64.8%	63.9%	65.3%	1.4%	0.7%
NYG @ DAL	49.7%	WAS	36.4%	35.7%	37.1%	1.3%	0.7%
GB @ JAC	32.7%	TEN	18.6%	19.0%	17.6%	-1.4%	0.7%
CHI @ HOU	70.3%	BUF	33.3%	34.3%	32.9%	-1.4%	0.6%
MIN @ TEN	41.0%	ATL	17.3%	16.7%	18.0%	1.3%	0.6%
GB @ JAC	32.7%	OAK	53.8%	54.2%	52.9%	-1.3%	0.6%
MIA @ SEA	80.5%	BUF	33.3%	32.0%	33.6%	1.6%	0.6%
MIN @ TEN	41.0%	DET	13.0%	12.5%	13.7%	1.2%	0.6%
MIN @ TEN	41.0%	CHI	9.0%	8.5%	9.8%	1.2%	0.6%
PIT @ WAS	39.4%	KC	47.4%	46.9%	48.1%	1.2%	0.6%
CIN @ NYJ	41.3%	BUF	33.3%	33.8%	32.6%	-1.2%	0.6%
MIN @ TEN	41.0%	DAL	34.3%	33.8%	35.1%	1.2%	0.6%
OAK @ NO	55.2%	PIT	88.1%	87.4%	88.6%	1.2%	0.6%
GB @ JAC	32.7%	DAL	34.3%	33.9%	35.2%	1.2%	0.6%
PIT @ WAS	39.4%	ARZ	80.7%	81.1%	79.9%	-1.2%	0.6%
GB @ JAC	32.7%	IND	30.5%	30.9%	29.7%	-1.2%	0.6%
PIT @ WAS	39.4%	CIN	75.2%	74.7%	75.9%	1.2%	0.6%
MIA @ SEA	80.5%	NE	73.3%	72.1%	73.6%	1.4%	0.6%
GB @ JAC	32.7%	CHI	9.0%	8.6%	9.8%	1.2%	0.6%
DET @ IND	60.5%	GB	81.3%	80.6%	81.7%	1.1%	0.5%
MIN @ TEN	41.0%	JAC	13.1%	13.5%	12.5%	-1.1%	0.5%
PIT @ WAS	39.4%	TB	19.1%	19.5%	18.5%	-1.1%	0.5%
NE @ ARZ	73.2%	MIA	8.2%	7.4%	8.5%	1.1%	0.5%
CIN @ NYJ	41.3%	TEN	18.6%	18.2%	19.2%	1.0%	0.5%
NYG @ DAL	49.7%	ARZ	80.7%	81.2%	80.2%	-1.0%	0.5%
TB @ ATL	58.7%	JAC	13.1%	12.5%	13.5%	1.0%	0.5%
TB @ ATL	58.7%	ARZ	80.7%	80.1%	81.1%	1.0%	0.5%
BUF @ BAL	60.4%	ATL	17.3%	17.8%	16.9%	-1.0%	0.5%
MIA @ SEA	80.5%	STL	7.6%	8.5%	7.4%	-1.2%	0.5%
BUF @ BAL	60.4%	MIA	8.2%	7.8%	8.5%	0.7%	0.3%
NYG @ DAL	49.7%	PHI	4.0%	3.8%	4.3%	0.5%	0.3%
STL @ SF	41.4%	SF	0.4%	0.2%	0.7%	0.5%	0.3%
NE @ ARZ	73.2%	CLE	1.4%	1.1%	1.5%	0.3%	0.1%
OAK @ NO	55.2%	SF	0.4%	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%