inpredictable

Guess the Lines - Final Results

December 24, 2016

Here are the week 16 results for the final installment of "Guess the Lines". This is a weekly feature in which I put my Vegas NF...

Turnover Index Week 16

December 23, 2016

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 16. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the mark...

Guess the Lines Week 16

December 17, 2016

Here are the week 15 results and week 16 predictions for this installment of "Guess the Lines". This is a weekly feature in whic...

Turnover Index Week 14

December 10, 2016

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 14. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the mark...

Guess the Lines - Week 15

December 10, 2016

Here are the week 14 results and week 15 predictions for this installment of "Guess the Lines". This is a weekly feature in whic...

Guess the Lines Week 14

December 03, 2016

Here are the week 13 results and week 14 predictions for this installment of "Guess the Lines". This is a weekly feature in whic...

Turnover Index Week 13

December 03, 2016

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 13. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the mark...

Guess the Lines - Week 13

November 23, 2016

Here are the week 12 results and week 13 predictions for this installment of "Guess the Lines". This is a weekly feature in whic...

Turnover Index - Week 12

November 23, 2016

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 12. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the mark...

Guess the Lines - Week 12

November 16, 2016

Here are the week 11 results and week 12 predictions for the "Guess the Lines" prediction contest. This is a weekly feature in w...

Turnover Index Week 10

November 12, 2016

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 10. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the mark...

Guess the Lines - Week 11 (plus Week 10 results)

November 12, 2016

The results are in. Who was right, the pundits or the models? Last week, I launched a weekly feature that pits my Vegas NFL rankings ag...

Turnover Index Week 9

November 06, 2016

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 9. I distributed prior picks this season via tweet , but now have time to put these i...

Guess the lines - Machine vs Men

November 01, 2016

I spend a lot of time in my car these days, thanks to a commute that takes me through the worst stretches of LA's 105 and 110 freeways....

NFL Playoff Implications - Week 5

October 09, 2016

Here are playoff implications for week five of the NFL season. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant ...

NFL Week Four Power Ranking Roundup

October 05, 2016

10/7/2016 update: The original version of this post had the incorrect FPI rankings. The table has now been updated and some of the text as w...

NFL Playoff Implications - Week 3

September 24, 2016

Here are playoff implications for week three of the NFL season. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant...

NFL Playoff Implications - Week 2

September 17, 2016

Here are playoff implications for week two of the NFL season. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant ...

NFL Playoff Implications - Week 1

September 11, 2016

Playoff implications return for the 2016 season. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the...

NFL Market Rankings are Live

September 07, 2016

NFL Vegas rankings are live and will update daily for the remainder of the season. These rankings are an attempt to reverse engineer what t...

20 Years of WNBA Win Probability Graphs

September 06, 2016

The NBA season is still some two months away, but the WNBA season is in full swing. Regular season play has now resumed following the Olympi...

Betting Market Rankings for the WNBA

July 17, 2016

The WNB-Ays I have added the WNBA to my suite of betting market rankings, to go alongside those for the NBA , NFL , MLB , College Footb...

Bonus Tim Duncan Chart - Bank Shots

July 16, 2016

On the occasion of Tim Duncan's retirement earlier this week, I used SportVU motion tracking data to call attention to an unnoticed elem...

The weirdest thing about Tim Duncan

July 11, 2016

Tim Duncan announced his retirement today, after 19 seasons in the NBA. On Duncan and his impact to the game, there is no shortage of artic...

Inspired by last night's game 7, a new metric: The Tension Index

June 20, 2016

Prior to Sunday night's game 7, I lamented the lack of in-game drama in this year's NBA finals. The average excitement index of tho...

Exciting Finals, Boring Games

June 19, 2016

Regardless the outcome in tonight's game 7, we are guaranteed a compelling story. Either the " jump shooting " Warriors put a ...

Is pace contagious?

May 30, 2016

Possessions, despite being analytical bedrock, are not an officially tracked NBA statistic. As a result, the counting of possessions in an N...

Endgame strategy in the NBA

May 08, 2016

Or how I learned to stop worrying and love the #quick2 (sometimes). When a team is trailing by three late in a game (e.g. less than 30 s...

New box score feature: Pace and Efficiency Report

April 24, 2016

I have added a new feature to my NBA Win Probability Graphs and Box Scores . If you click the "pace" tab, you will see a table tha...

The 2015-16 NBA Regular Season Review

April 16, 2016

Using the various NBA tools I have built for this site over the years (see the sidebar on the top right), here are the top performers, top p...

Playoff Seed Probability Motion Charts

April 02, 2016

With an 82 game season, an NBA team's fortunes then to ebb and flow in increments, rather than huge leaps. This gradual evolution ca...

How long does a rebound take?

March 27, 2016

A deep dive into the minutiae of NBA timekeeping. I'm working on a post on endgame strategies in the NBA that I hope to roll ...

Gregg Popovich is a Timeout Trendsetter

March 20, 2016

In a post on the length of NBA games , I noted a trend in the length of each minute. The average length of the 5:00 minute in the 1st quar...

The odds for a perfect bracket this year are 1 in 12 billion

March 17, 2016

As I did last year , I have used my betting market rankings to calculate an "optimal" NCAA tournament bracket. My ranking system ...

Steph Curry is the MVP even if he doesn't play another game this season

March 13, 2016

MVP debates across all sports tend to devolve into tiresome semantics. What does "most valuable" mean? Is it the best player? The ...

Free Throw Deep Dives: Launch Angle

March 09, 2016

This is the first post in a planned series of deep dives into free throw shooting (and shooting in general). Using SportVU data , w...

Hero Ball follow up - Inequality and Efficiency

March 06, 2016

As a follow up on last week's hero ball post , here is how inequality correlates with shooting efficiency. In that original post, I used...

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