Turnover Index Week 15

Here are the Turnover Index picks and results for week 15. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.

Our sole pick from week 14 was successful. However, the edge was so small that the Kelly Criterion dictated that we bet just 0.1% of our bankroll, so the impact on overall results was negligible.

Here are the season to date results:

week	bets	won	starting bankroll	amount bet	profits	ending bankroll
6	1	1	$1,000	$40 (4.1%)	$37	$1,037
7	3	1	$1,037	$79 (7.7%)	($29)	$1,008
9	2	1	$1,008	$66 (6.6%)	($51)	$956
10	3	1	$956	$43 (4.6%)	$3	$959
11	1	1	$959	$11 (1.2%)	$10	$970
12	3	2	$970	$45 (4.7%)	($34)	$935
13	1	1	$935	$13 (1.4%)	$12	$948
14	1	1	$948	$0 (0.1%)	$0	$948

We are now 9-6 against the spread, but with a negative ROI due to bet size. We have two bets this week, including one on tonight's Jets-Cowboys matchup.