NFL Playoff Implications Week 16

Here are the playoff implications for the NFL's week 16 games. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team. The results of the three Thanksgiving games have already been taken into account in the tables below.

Ranking Week 16 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 16 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
WAS @ PHI	69.1%
NE @ NYJ	37.0%
HOU @ TEN	21.9%
PIT @ BAL	18.4%
CLE @ KC	17.1%
NYG @ MIN	17.0%
CIN @ DEN	15.9%
JAC @ NO	4.1%
STL @ SEA	0.9%
CAR @ ATL	0.6%
CHI @ TB	0.2%
DAL @ BUF	0.0%
GB @ ARZ	0.0%
IND @ MIA	0.0%
SF @ DET	0.0%

Looking ahead to week 17

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 16-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
17	PHI @ NYG	37.6%
17	NYJ @ BUF	35.6%
17	WAS @ DAL	35.1%
17	JAC @ HOU	23.7%
17	SD @ DEN	20.0%
17	PIT @ CLE	17.6%
17	OAK @ KC	16.4%
17	TEN @ IND	10.1%
17	SEA @ ARZ	0.4%
17	NO @ ATL	0.3%

Week 16 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 15. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

GB@ARZ CAR@ATL PIT@BAL DAL@BUF CIN@DEN SF@DET CLE@KC IND@MIA NYG@MIN JAC@NO NE@NYJ SD@OAK WAS@PHI STL@SEA CHI@TB HOU@TEN  OR Select Team: ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ OAK PHI PIT SD SEA SF STL TB TEN WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
WAS @ PHI	60.3%	WAS	57.4%	100.0%	29.4%	-70.6%	34.5%
WAS @ PHI	60.3%	PHI	37.4%	0.0%	61.9%	61.9%	30.3%
NE @ NYJ	39.1%	NYJ	22.0%	7.2%	45.1%	37.9%	18.5%
HOU @ TEN	33.2%	HOU	92.1%	99.8%	76.5%	-23.3%	11.0%
PIT @ BAL	19.7%	PIT	92.5%	97.1%	73.9%	-23.2%	9.2%
HOU @ TEN	33.2%	IND	6.3%	0.2%	18.7%	18.4%	8.7%
CLE @ KC	81.6%	KC	93.1%	75.2%	97.2%	22.0%	8.5%
NYG @ MIN	71.5%	NYG	5.2%	18.3%	0.0%	-18.3%	8.3%
NYG @ MIN	71.5%	PHI	37.4%	24.5%	42.5%	18.0%	8.1%
CIN @ DEN	60.9%	DEN	92.3%	82.6%	98.6%	16.0%	7.8%
CIN @ DEN	60.9%	NYJ	22.0%	30.9%	16.3%	-14.5%	7.1%
NE @ NYJ	39.1%	PIT	92.5%	98.2%	83.7%	-14.5%	7.1%
CLE @ KC	81.6%	NYJ	22.0%	35.0%	19.1%	-15.9%	6.2%
NE @ NYJ	39.1%	KC	93.1%	97.9%	85.8%	-12.1%	5.9%
NE @ NYJ	39.1%	DEN	92.3%	96.8%	85.4%	-11.4%	5.5%
PIT @ BAL	19.7%	NYJ	22.0%	19.4%	32.8%	13.4%	5.3%
WAS @ PHI	60.3%	NYG	5.2%	0.0%	8.7%	8.7%	4.2%
HOU @ TEN	33.2%	JAC	1.6%	0.0%	4.8%	4.8%	2.3%
JAC @ NO	60.5%	HOU	92.1%	89.4%	93.8%	4.4%	2.2%
PIT @ BAL	19.7%	KC	93.1%	92.1%	97.2%	5.1%	2.0%
JAC @ NO	60.5%	JAC	1.6%	4.1%	0.0%	-4.1%	2.0%
PIT @ BAL	19.7%	DEN	92.3%	91.4%	96.1%	4.7%	1.9%
CLE @ KC	81.6%	DEN	92.3%	96.2%	91.5%	-4.8%	1.8%
CLE @ KC	81.6%	PIT	92.5%	93.6%	92.2%	-1.4%	0.5%
STL @ SEA	87.2%	SEA	99.8%	98.6%	100.0%	1.4%	0.5%
STL @ SEA	87.2%	ATL	0.2%	1.4%	0.0%	-1.4%	0.5%
CIN @ DEN	60.9%	PIT	92.5%	93.0%	92.2%	-0.8%	0.4%
CIN @ DEN	60.9%	KC	93.1%	93.6%	92.9%	-0.7%	0.3%
CIN @ DEN	60.9%	HOU	92.1%	92.5%	91.8%	-0.7%	0.3%
CAR @ ATL	26.9%	ATL	0.2%	0.0%	0.7%	0.7%	0.3%
CAR @ ATL	26.9%	SEA	99.8%	100.0%	99.3%	-0.7%	0.3%
NYG @ MIN	71.5%	SEA	99.8%	99.4%	100.0%	0.6%	0.3%
NYG @ MIN	71.5%	ATL	0.2%	0.6%	0.0%	-0.6%	0.3%
CHI @ TB	60.3%	JAC	1.6%	1.4%	1.7%	0.3%	0.2%