NFL Playoff Implications Week 9

Unfortunately, weekly playoff implications will not be featured on FiveThirtyEight this season. But, I was able to dust off the code from the "classic" version I originally created for this site. It lacks the bells and whistles of the FiveThirtyEight version, but it gets the job done. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 9 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 9 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
STL @ MIN	32.4%
JAC @ NYJ	28.4%
PHI @ DAL	27.0%
OAK @ PIT	26.7%
MIA @ BUF	23.7%
NYG @ TB	16.9%
ATL @ SF	16.4%
DEN @ IND	16.2%
TEN @ NO	12.7%
WAS @ NE	5.6%
GB @ CAR	4.5%
CHI @ SD	1.4%

Beyond Week 9

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 10-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
17	PHI @ NYG	44.2%
15	HOU @ IND	44.0%
11	NYJ @ HOU	38.5%
12	PIT @ SEA	36.1%
13	NYJ @ NYG	35.7%
13	IND @ PIT	35.2%
10	MIN @ OAK	34.9%
13	SEA @ MIN	34.7%
16	NYG @ MIN	34.3%
14	BUF @ PHI	33.5%

Week 9 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 9. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

MIA@BUF GB@CAR CLE@CIN PHI@DAL DEN@IND STL@MIN WAS@NE TEN@NO JAC@NYJ OAK@PIT CHI@SD ATL@SF NYG@TB  OR Select Team: dd ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ OAK PHI PIT SD SEA SF STL TB TEN WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
STL @ MIN	57.1%	STL	34.1%	51.9%	20.8%	-31.1%	15.4%
STL @ MIN	57.1%	MIN	39.2%	22.8%	51.5%	28.6%	14.2%
PHI @ DAL	41.2%	PHI	56.7%	68.3%	40.1%	-28.2%	13.9%
OAK @ PIT	65.5%	OAK	32.1%	50.5%	22.4%	-28.1%	13.4%
OAK @ PIT	65.5%	PIT	28.3%	10.6%	37.7%	27.1%	12.9%
MIA @ BUF	60.5%	BUF	33.3%	17.9%	43.4%	25.5%	12.5%
JAC @ NYJ	74.7%	NYJ	51.1%	33.8%	57.0%	23.3%	10.1%
MIA @ BUF	60.5%	MIA	16.9%	28.5%	9.2%	-19.4%	9.5%
ATL @ SF	27.1%	ATL	79.7%	84.9%	65.7%	-19.2%	8.5%
DEN @ IND	32.9%	IND	57.4%	51.5%	69.4%	17.9%	8.4%
NYG @ TB	41.4%	NYG	30.3%	37.3%	20.3%	-17.0%	8.4%
PHI @ DAL	41.2%	DAL	7.8%	2.0%	16.0%	14.1%	6.9%
TEN @ NO	75.7%	NO	21.3%	11.0%	24.5%	13.5%	5.8%
JAC @ NYJ	74.7%	JAC	12.6%	21.8%	9.6%	-12.2%	5.3%
NYG @ TB	41.4%	PHI	56.7%	52.6%	62.4%	9.8%	4.8%
PHI @ DAL	41.2%	NYG	30.3%	26.4%	35.9%	9.5%	4.7%
DEN @ IND	32.9%	HOU	29.9%	33.1%	23.3%	-9.8%	4.6%
WAS @ NE	88.0%	WAS	7.7%	16.2%	6.6%	-9.6%	3.1%
JAC @ NYJ	74.7%	IND	57.4%	52.5%	59.1%	6.5%	2.8%
DEN @ IND	32.9%	JAC	12.6%	14.4%	9.1%	-5.3%	2.5%
GB @ CAR	39.4%	CAR	95.7%	94.0%	98.4%	4.5%	2.2%
ATL @ SF	27.1%	NO	21.3%	20.0%	24.6%	4.6%	2.0%
JAC @ NYJ	74.7%	KC	32.3%	35.7%	31.1%	-4.6%	2.0%
JAC @ NYJ	74.7%	OAK	32.1%	35.1%	31.1%	-4.0%	1.7%
ATL @ SF	27.1%	MIN	39.2%	38.1%	42.0%	3.9%	1.7%
NYG @ TB	41.4%	DAL	7.8%	6.4%	9.7%	3.3%	1.6%
JAC @ NYJ	74.7%	PIT	28.3%	31.2%	27.4%	-3.8%	1.6%
TEN @ NO	75.7%	ATL	79.7%	82.5%	78.8%	-3.7%	1.6%
WAS @ NE	88.0%	PHI	56.7%	52.4%	57.3%	4.9%	1.6%
PHI @ DAL	41.2%	WAS	7.7%	6.4%	9.6%	3.2%	1.6%
GB @ CAR	39.4%	GB	98.1%	99.3%	96.1%	-3.2%	1.6%
JAC @ NYJ	74.7%	BUF	33.3%	36.0%	32.4%	-3.6%	1.5%
JAC @ NYJ	74.7%	MIA	16.9%	19.4%	16.0%	-3.4%	1.5%
ATL @ SF	27.1%	SEA	50.1%	49.2%	52.6%	3.3%	1.5%
MIA @ BUF	60.5%	NYJ	51.1%	52.9%	50.0%	-2.9%	1.4%
TEN @ NO	75.7%	TEN	2.0%	4.3%	1.2%	-3.1%	1.3%
ATL @ SF	27.1%	ARZ	77.5%	76.7%	79.7%	3.0%	1.3%
JAC @ NYJ	74.7%	HOU	29.9%	27.7%	30.6%	2.9%	1.3%
TEN @ NO	75.7%	SEA	50.1%	52.4%	49.4%	-2.9%	1.2%
STL @ MIN	57.1%	SEA	50.1%	48.7%	51.2%	2.4%	1.2%
ATL @ SF	27.1%	STL	34.1%	33.4%	36.0%	2.6%	1.2%
NYG @ TB	41.4%	TB	1.6%	0.7%	2.9%	2.3%	1.1%
TEN @ NO	75.7%	MIN	39.2%	40.8%	38.7%	-2.1%	0.9%
NYG @ TB	41.4%	WAS	7.7%	7.0%	8.7%	1.8%	0.9%
STL @ MIN	57.1%	ARZ	77.5%	76.6%	78.3%	1.7%	0.9%
WAS @ NE	88.0%	NYG	30.3%	28.0%	30.6%	2.6%	0.8%
TEN @ NO	75.7%	ARZ	77.5%	78.8%	77.1%	-1.7%	0.7%
GB @ CAR	39.4%	SEA	50.1%	50.7%	49.3%	-1.5%	0.7%
CHI @ SD	64.3%	SD	1.3%	0.4%	1.8%	1.4%	0.7%
CHI @ SD	64.3%	NYJ	51.1%	51.9%	50.7%	-1.2%	0.6%
TEN @ NO	75.7%	IND	57.4%	56.4%	57.7%	1.3%	0.6%
STL @ MIN	57.1%	ATL	79.7%	80.4%	79.2%	-1.1%	0.6%
TEN @ NO	75.7%	CAR	95.7%	96.7%	95.4%	-1.3%	0.6%
DEN @ IND	32.9%	TEN	2.0%	2.3%	1.2%	-1.1%	0.5%
JAC @ NYJ	74.7%	BAL	2.8%	3.4%	2.5%	-0.9%	0.4%
MIA @ BUF	60.5%	BAL	2.8%	3.2%	2.5%	-0.7%	0.3%
OAK @ PIT	65.5%	CAR	95.7%	96.1%	95.5%	-0.6%	0.3%
STL @ MIN	57.1%	GB	98.1%	98.4%	97.8%	-0.5%	0.3%
OAK @ PIT	65.5%	BAL	2.8%	2.5%	2.9%	0.4%	0.2%
ATL @ SF	27.1%	GB	98.1%	97.9%	98.4%	0.4%	0.2%
CHI @ SD	64.3%	CHI	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%	-0.3%	0.2%
DEN @ IND	32.9%	DEN	99.8%	99.9%	99.6%	-0.3%	0.2%
NYG @ TB	41.4%	CLE	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
WAS @ NE	88.0%	NE	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%	0.1%	0.0%