NFL Playoff Implications Week 12

Here are the playoff implications for the NFL's week 12 games. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team. The results of the three Thanksgiving games have already been taken into account in the tables below.

Ranking Week 12 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 12 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
PIT @ SEA	47.7%
MIN @ ATL	39.8%
BUF @ KC	36.6%
NYG @ WAS	36.5%
TB @ IND	35.4%
NO @ HOU	19.9%
MIA @ NYJ	15.8%
SD @ JAC	7.5%
STL @ CIN	6.3%
OAK @ TEN	4.2%
NE @ DEN	2.5%
ARZ @ SF	0.8%
BAL @ CLE	0.1%

Beyond Week 12

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 13-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
15	HOU @ IND	49.9%
13	SEA @ MIN	46.8%
13	IND @ PIT	40.2%
13	HOU @ BUF	40.1%
17	PHI @ NYG	37.4%
13	ATL @ TB	35.0%
16	NYG @ MIN	34.9%
14	BUF @ PHI	34.1%
15	DEN @ PIT	33.5%
13	NYJ @ NYG	33.1%

Week 12 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 12. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

MIN@ATL STL@CIN BAL@CLE NE@DEN NO@HOU TB@IND SD@JAC BUF@KC MIA@NYJ PIT@SEA ARZ@SF OAK@TEN NYG@WAS  OR Select Team: ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ OAK PHI PIT SD SEA SF STL TB TEN WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
MIN @ ATL	53.9%	ATL	48.2%	27.0%	66.4%	39.4%	19.6%
BUF @ KC	71.9%	BUF	37.6%	67.6%	25.9%	-41.7%	18.7%
NYG @ WAS	40.9%	NYG	70.3%	85.4%	48.5%	-36.9%	18.1%
BUF @ KC	71.9%	KC	78.8%	52.5%	89.0%	36.5%	16.4%
MIN @ ATL	53.9%	MIN	72.4%	88.5%	58.7%	-29.8%	14.9%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	PIT	54.0%	70.4%	44.1%	-26.2%	12.7%
NYG @ WAS	40.9%	WAS	11.6%	1.6%	26.0%	24.4%	12.0%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	SEA	48.5%	33.8%	57.4%	23.6%	11.4%
TB @ IND	60.5%	IND	60.8%	48.6%	68.8%	20.1%	9.8%
TB @ IND	60.5%	TB	19.1%	29.9%	12.2%	-17.7%	8.7%
NO @ HOU	60.7%	HOU	35.7%	25.3%	42.5%	17.2%	8.4%
MIA @ NYJ	62.1%	NYJ	17.4%	6.7%	24.0%	17.2%	8.4%
TB @ IND	60.5%	HOU	35.7%	42.8%	31.0%	-11.8%	5.8%
NO @ HOU	60.7%	IND	60.8%	67.0%	56.8%	-10.1%	4.9%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	BUF	37.6%	32.1%	41.0%	8.8%	4.3%
NYG @ WAS	40.9%	PHI	15.2%	11.8%	20.1%	8.2%	4.1%
MIA @ NYJ	62.1%	MIA	4.0%	9.1%	0.8%	-8.3%	4.0%
SD @ JAC	63.5%	JAC	9.6%	4.4%	12.6%	8.2%	4.0%
STL @ CIN	76.8%	STL	4.3%	10.2%	2.5%	-7.8%	3.3%
TB @ IND	60.5%	ATL	48.2%	44.6%	50.6%	6.0%	2.9%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	KC	78.8%	75.2%	81.0%	5.8%	2.8%
OAK @ TEN	44.6%	OAK	4.4%	6.8%	1.4%	-5.3%	2.6%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	MIN	72.4%	75.7%	70.4%	-5.3%	2.6%
NO @ HOU	60.7%	NO	4.1%	7.1%	2.1%	-5.0%	2.4%
SD @ JAC	63.5%	IND	60.8%	63.9%	59.0%	-4.9%	2.4%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	NYJ	17.4%	14.5%	19.2%	4.8%	2.3%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	ATL	48.2%	51.1%	46.4%	-4.7%	2.3%
NYG @ WAS	40.9%	DAL	3.7%	1.8%	6.4%	4.6%	2.3%
TB @ IND	60.5%	JAC	9.6%	12.3%	7.9%	-4.4%	2.2%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	CHI	9.9%	12.5%	8.4%	-4.1%	2.0%
TB @ IND	60.5%	SEA	48.5%	46.0%	50.0%	4.0%	2.0%
TB @ IND	60.5%	MIN	72.4%	70.0%	74.0%	4.0%	1.9%
MIN @ ATL	53.9%	SEA	48.5%	50.5%	46.7%	-3.8%	1.9%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	TB	19.1%	21.4%	17.8%	-3.7%	1.8%
MIA @ NYJ	62.1%	PIT	54.0%	56.2%	52.7%	-3.5%	1.7%
NE @ DEN	39.4%	DEN	97.6%	96.3%	99.5%	3.2%	1.6%
NO @ HOU	60.7%	JAC	9.6%	11.6%	8.4%	-3.2%	1.6%
STL @ CIN	76.8%	SEA	48.5%	45.7%	49.3%	3.5%	1.5%
MIN @ ATL	53.9%	CHI	9.9%	11.3%	8.7%	-2.6%	1.3%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	GB	91.9%	93.5%	91.0%	-2.5%	1.2%
STL @ CIN	76.8%	ATL	48.2%	46.1%	48.8%	2.7%	1.1%
NO @ HOU	60.7%	ATL	48.2%	46.8%	49.1%	2.4%	1.1%
MIA @ NYJ	62.1%	BUF	37.6%	39.1%	36.7%	-2.4%	1.1%
NO @ HOU	60.7%	PIT	54.0%	55.1%	53.3%	-1.7%	0.8%
NE @ DEN	39.4%	PIT	54.0%	54.7%	53.0%	-1.7%	0.8%
TB @ IND	60.5%	PIT	54.0%	55.0%	53.4%	-1.7%	0.8%
OAK @ TEN	44.6%	BUF	37.6%	36.9%	38.5%	1.6%	0.8%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	HOU	35.7%	34.7%	36.3%	1.6%	0.8%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	MIA	4.0%	3.0%	4.5%	1.6%	0.8%
ARZ @ SF	18.2%	ARZ	99.3%	99.7%	97.8%	-1.9%	0.7%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	OAK	4.4%	3.5%	4.9%	1.5%	0.7%
OAK @ TEN	44.6%	KC	78.8%	78.1%	79.6%	1.4%	0.7%
TB @ IND	60.5%	GB	91.9%	91.1%	92.5%	1.4%	0.7%
BUF @ KC	71.9%	PIT	54.0%	53.0%	54.4%	1.4%	0.6%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	STL	4.3%	5.1%	3.8%	-1.3%	0.6%
MIN @ ATL	53.9%	STL	4.3%	4.9%	3.7%	-1.2%	0.6%
SD @ JAC	63.5%	HOU	35.7%	36.5%	35.2%	-1.3%	0.6%
MIA @ NYJ	62.1%	KC	78.8%	79.5%	78.3%	-1.2%	0.6%
MIN @ ATL	53.9%	NYG	70.3%	71.0%	69.8%	-1.2%	0.6%
SD @ JAC	63.5%	BUF	37.6%	38.4%	37.2%	-1.2%	0.6%
NO @ HOU	60.7%	GB	91.9%	91.3%	92.3%	1.1%	0.5%
MIN @ ATL	53.9%	GB	91.9%	92.5%	91.5%	-1.0%	0.5%
BUF @ KC	71.9%	OAK	4.4%	3.7%	4.7%	1.0%	0.4%
TB @ IND	60.5%	CHI	9.9%	9.4%	10.3%	0.9%	0.4%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	JAC	9.6%	9.1%	10.0%	0.9%	0.4%
BUF @ KC	71.9%	MIA	4.0%	3.3%	4.2%	0.9%	0.4%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	NO	4.1%	4.6%	3.8%	-0.8%	0.4%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	DET	1.4%	1.9%	1.1%	-0.7%	0.4%
PIT @ SEA	62.2%	DEN	97.6%	97.2%	97.8%	0.6%	0.3%
MIN @ ATL	53.9%	DET	1.4%	1.7%	1.2%	-0.5%	0.2%
STL @ CIN	76.8%	NO	4.1%	3.7%	4.2%	0.5%	0.2%
TB @ IND	60.5%	DET	1.4%	1.2%	1.5%	0.4%	0.2%
MIN @ ATL	53.9%	ARZ	99.3%	99.5%	99.2%	-0.3%	0.1%
NE @ DEN	39.4%	DET	1.4%	1.3%	1.6%	0.3%	0.1%
STL @ CIN	76.8%	CIN	99.9%	99.6%	100.0%	0.3%	0.1%
BAL @ CLE	59.3%	BAL	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	-0.2%	0.1%
OAK @ TEN	44.6%	TEN	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%
TB @ IND	60.5%	TEN	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	-0.1%	0.1%
NO @ HOU	60.7%	TEN	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	-0.1%	0.0%
ARZ @ SF	18.2%	SF	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%