NFL Playoff Implications Week 11

Here are the playoff implications for the NFL's week 11 games. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from a 50,000 round simulation of the remainder of the NFL season. I use my daily NFL rankings to simulate future games. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 11 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 10 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
NYJ @ HOU	38.8%
IND @ ATL	33.2%
KC @ SD	26.3%
TB @ PHI	23.7%
BUF @ NE	23.2%
GB @ MIN	20.4%
DEN @ CHI	14.6%
SF @ SEA	14.2%
WAS @ CAR	13.0%
DAL @ MIA	8.5%
OAK @ DET	8.0%
STL @ BAL	7.8%
CIN @ ARZ	4.0%

Beyond Week 11

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 12-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
17	PHI @ NYG	48.9%
12	PIT @ SEA	46.1%
15	HOU @ IND	43.9%
13	NYJ @ NYG	41.5%
13	IND @ PIT	41.5%
14	BUF @ PHI	41.1%
12	BUF @ KC	38.8%
12	NYG @ WAS	36.8%
13	HOU @ BUF	35.4%
14	IND @ JAC	35.3%

Week 11 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 11. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

CIN@ARZ IND@ATL STL@BAL WAS@CAR DEN@CHI OAK@DET NYJ@HOU TEN@JAC DAL@MIA GB@MIN BUF@NE TB@PHI KC@SD SF@SEA  OR Select Team: ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ OAK PHI PIT SD SEA SF STL TB TEN WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
KC @ SD	39.0%	KC	52.3%	62.8%	35.9%	-26.9%	13.1%
NYJ @ HOU	39.1%	NYJ	33.2%	42.7%	18.2%	-24.5%	12.0%
BUF @ NE	72.9%	BUF	52.2%	71.5%	45.0%	-26.5%	11.8%
GB @ MIN	53.4%	MIN	82.8%	72.1%	92.1%	20.0%	10.0%
TB @ PHI	68.4%	PHI	38.3%	24.3%	44.8%	20.5%	9.5%
GB @ MIN	53.4%	GB	83.3%	93.5%	74.5%	-19.0%	9.5%
NYJ @ HOU	39.1%	HOU	27.3%	20.1%	38.5%	18.4%	9.0%
IND @ ATL	68.9%	IND	56.8%	69.5%	51.1%	-18.4%	8.5%
IND @ ATL	68.9%	ATL	77.2%	64.7%	82.8%	18.1%	8.4%
SF @ SEA	86.0%	SEA	30.0%	11.3%	33.0%	21.8%	7.6%
WAS @ CAR	74.0%	WAS	16.4%	27.7%	12.5%	-15.2%	6.7%
NYJ @ HOU	39.1%	IND	56.8%	60.9%	50.4%	-10.5%	5.1%
TB @ PHI	68.4%	NYG	47.7%	54.6%	44.5%	-10.1%	4.7%
TB @ PHI	68.4%	TB	6.5%	13.4%	3.3%	-10.1%	4.7%
STL @ BAL	58.8%	STL	8.0%	13.4%	4.2%	-9.2%	4.5%
DEN @ CHI	46.4%	DEN	91.7%	95.6%	87.2%	-8.3%	4.2%
OAK @ DET	50.4%	OAK	9.1%	13.3%	5.0%	-8.3%	4.2%
IND @ ATL	68.9%	HOU	27.3%	21.2%	30.0%	8.8%	4.1%
DEN @ CHI	46.4%	CHI	6.4%	2.9%	10.5%	7.7%	3.8%
KC @ SD	39.0%	PIT	53.2%	50.2%	57.8%	7.6%	3.7%
IND @ ATL	68.9%	JAC	18.1%	12.8%	20.4%	7.6%	3.5%
BUF @ NE	72.9%	PIT	53.2%	47.5%	55.2%	7.7%	3.4%
BUF @ NE	72.9%	NYJ	33.2%	27.7%	35.2%	7.5%	3.3%
NYJ @ HOU	39.1%	PIT	53.2%	50.5%	57.3%	6.8%	3.3%
DAL @ MIA	46.5%	MIA	5.5%	2.5%	9.1%	6.6%	3.3%
NYJ @ HOU	39.1%	BUF	52.2%	50.0%	55.6%	5.6%	2.7%
IND @ ATL	68.9%	SEA	30.0%	34.0%	28.2%	-5.8%	2.7%
WAS @ CAR	74.0%	NYG	47.7%	43.3%	49.3%	5.9%	2.6%
WAS @ CAR	74.0%	PHI	38.3%	34.1%	39.8%	5.8%	2.5%
KC @ SD	39.0%	NYJ	33.2%	31.2%	36.2%	5.0%	2.4%
NYJ @ HOU	39.1%	KC	52.3%	50.4%	55.3%	4.8%	2.4%
BUF @ NE	72.9%	KC	52.3%	48.5%	53.8%	5.3%	2.3%
NYJ @ HOU	39.1%	JAC	18.1%	19.9%	15.2%	-4.7%	2.3%
KC @ SD	39.0%	DEN	91.7%	90.0%	94.4%	4.4%	2.1%
TB @ PHI	68.4%	WAS	16.4%	19.4%	15.0%	-4.3%	2.0%
KC @ SD	39.0%	BUF	52.2%	50.6%	54.6%	4.0%	1.9%
SF @ SEA	86.0%	ATL	77.2%	81.7%	76.4%	-5.3%	1.9%
DAL @ MIA	46.5%	DAL	2.9%	4.6%	1.0%	-3.6%	1.8%
CIN @ ARZ	65.7%	ARZ	97.2%	94.7%	98.5%	3.8%	1.8%
OAK @ DET	50.4%	KC	52.3%	50.8%	53.8%	3.0%	1.5%
IND @ ATL	68.9%	STL	8.0%	10.1%	7.1%	-3.0%	1.4%
STL @ BAL	58.8%	SEA	30.0%	28.4%	31.1%	2.7%	1.3%
KC @ SD	39.0%	OAK	9.1%	8.1%	10.7%	2.6%	1.3%
SF @ SEA	86.0%	MIN	82.8%	86.0%	82.3%	-3.7%	1.3%
SF @ SEA	86.0%	GB	83.3%	86.3%	82.9%	-3.4%	1.2%
STL @ BAL	58.8%	ATL	77.2%	75.8%	78.1%	2.3%	1.1%
TB @ PHI	68.4%	ATL	77.2%	75.5%	77.9%	2.4%	1.1%
DEN @ CHI	46.4%	GB	83.3%	84.4%	82.2%	-2.2%	1.1%
DAL @ MIA	46.5%	KC	52.3%	53.3%	51.1%	-2.2%	1.1%
DEN @ CHI	46.4%	PIT	53.2%	52.2%	54.3%	2.1%	1.0%
CIN @ ARZ	65.7%	SEA	30.0%	31.4%	29.2%	-2.1%	1.0%
IND @ ATL	68.9%	TB	6.5%	7.9%	5.9%	-2.1%	1.0%
OAK @ DET	50.4%	PIT	53.2%	52.2%	54.1%	1.9%	0.9%
DEN @ CHI	46.4%	BUF	52.2%	51.3%	53.2%	1.9%	0.9%
DAL @ MIA	46.5%	PIT	53.2%	54.0%	52.2%	-1.7%	0.9%
GB @ MIN	53.4%	SEA	30.0%	30.9%	29.2%	-1.7%	0.9%
TB @ PHI	68.4%	SEA	30.0%	28.7%	30.6%	1.8%	0.9%
TB @ PHI	68.4%	DAL	2.9%	4.1%	2.3%	-1.8%	0.8%
BUF @ NE	72.9%	MIA	5.5%	4.3%	6.0%	1.7%	0.8%
DAL @ MIA	46.5%	NYG	47.7%	47.0%	48.5%	1.5%	0.8%
DEN @ CHI	46.4%	OAK	9.1%	8.4%	9.9%	1.5%	0.7%
NYJ @ HOU	39.1%	MIA	5.5%	5.0%	6.5%	1.5%	0.7%
BUF @ NE	72.9%	OAK	9.1%	7.9%	9.6%	1.6%	0.7%
KC @ SD	39.0%	MIA	5.5%	5.0%	6.4%	1.4%	0.7%
NYJ @ HOU	39.1%	OAK	9.1%	8.6%	10.0%	1.4%	0.7%
IND @ ATL	68.9%	NYG	47.7%	48.7%	47.3%	-1.4%	0.7%
BUF @ NE	72.9%	DEN	91.7%	90.6%	92.1%	1.5%	0.7%
WAS @ CAR	74.0%	SEA	30.0%	28.9%	30.4%	1.5%	0.7%
IND @ ATL	68.9%	CHI	6.4%	7.4%	6.0%	-1.4%	0.7%
DAL @ MIA	46.5%	WAS	16.4%	15.8%	17.1%	1.3%	0.6%
IND @ ATL	68.9%	MIN	82.8%	83.7%	82.4%	-1.3%	0.6%
CIN @ ARZ	65.7%	KC	52.3%	51.5%	52.8%	1.3%	0.6%
OAK @ DET	50.4%	DEN	91.7%	91.1%	92.3%	1.2%	0.6%
DEN @ CHI	46.4%	NYJ	33.2%	32.6%	33.8%	1.2%	0.6%
DEN @ CHI	46.4%	SEA	30.0%	30.5%	29.3%	-1.2%	0.6%
DEN @ CHI	46.4%	MIN	82.8%	83.4%	82.2%	-1.2%	0.6%
OAK @ DET	50.4%	NYJ	33.2%	32.6%	33.7%	1.2%	0.6%
IND @ ATL	68.9%	NO	3.1%	4.0%	2.7%	-1.2%	0.6%
KC @ SD	39.0%	HOU	27.3%	26.9%	28.0%	1.2%	0.6%
IND @ ATL	68.9%	GB	83.3%	84.1%	83.0%	-1.2%	0.5%
NYJ @ HOU	39.1%	DEN	91.7%	91.3%	92.4%	1.1%	0.5%
SF @ SEA	86.0%	CHI	6.4%	7.7%	6.2%	-1.5%	0.5%
DEN @ CHI	46.4%	STL	8.0%	8.5%	7.4%	-1.0%	0.5%
IND @ ATL	68.9%	OAK	9.1%	8.4%	9.4%	1.0%	0.5%
SF @ SEA	86.0%	TB	6.5%	7.7%	6.3%	-1.3%	0.5%
CIN @ ARZ	65.7%	STL	8.0%	8.6%	7.7%	-0.9%	0.4%
SF @ SEA	86.0%	STL	8.0%	9.0%	7.8%	-1.2%	0.4%
DEN @ CHI	46.4%	TB	6.5%	6.9%	6.1%	-0.8%	0.4%
STL @ BAL	58.8%	ARZ	97.2%	96.7%	97.5%	0.8%	0.4%
KC @ SD	39.0%	SD	0.3%	0.1%	0.8%	0.7%	0.4%
SF @ SEA	86.0%	ARZ	97.2%	98.1%	97.1%	-1.0%	0.4%
SF @ SEA	86.0%	NO	3.1%	4.0%	3.0%	-1.0%	0.3%
WAS @ CAR	74.0%	CAR	99.8%	99.3%	100.0%	0.6%	0.3%
WAS @ CAR	74.0%	DAL	2.9%	2.5%	3.1%	0.6%	0.3%
SF @ SEA	86.0%	SF	0.1%	0.8%	0.0%	-0.7%	0.3%
STL @ BAL	58.8%	NO	3.1%	2.8%	3.3%	0.5%	0.3%
STL @ BAL	58.8%	BAL	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%
OAK @ DET	50.4%	DET	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%
CIN @ ARZ	65.7%	CIN	99.8%	100.0%	99.7%	-0.3%	0.1%
DEN @ CHI	46.4%	SD	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%
KC @ SD	39.0%	CIN	99.8%	99.7%	99.9%	0.2%	0.1%
GB @ MIN	53.4%	DET	0.2%	0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%
BUF @ NE	72.9%	BAL	0.4%	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%
IND @ ATL	68.9%	TEN	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
NYJ @ HOU	39.1%	TEN	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%
BUF @ NE	72.9%	CIN	99.8%	99.7%	99.8%	0.1%	0.1%
OAK @ DET	50.4%	TEN	0.2%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%