Reggie Miller Shoots, Steals, and Rebounds the Pacers out of a 250 to 1 Hole
Today marks the 20th anniversary of one of the most impressive NBA playoff performances of all time: Reggie Miller's sucker punch of the Knicks in Game 1 of the 1995 Eastern Conference Semifinals. In nine seconds of game time, Miller scored eight unanswered points, the first six of which came in a brutally efficient five second span. Miller's eight points turned a seemingly insurmountable six point deficit into a two point lead. The Knicks players, who appeared just as shocked as the remaining MSG crowd that day, weren't even able to get a shot off in their final possession.
If you want to relive the moment, you can't go wrong with ESPN's 30 for 30 feature Winning Time, And Shea Serrano has a feature today on Grantland about his experiences as a young Reggie Miller fan in the mid-nineties (I, too, missed the 8 points in 9 seconds miracle due to the mistaken belief that the game was over). I'm not the writer Shea is, and I'm certainly not a filmmaker, but I can put Reggie's achievement in a historical context of sorts.
At its core, this site's NBA win probability model is a set of historical benchmarks. When teams hold a 10 point lead midway through the second quarter, they tend to win about 75% of the time. That same 10 point lead midway through the fourth quarter results in victory about 96% of the time. And so on.
And when a team is trailing by six points with 18 seconds to go, as the Pacers were 20 years ago, victory is just an 0.4% proposition. Official play by play data is not available for the 1994-95 season, but I was able to cobble it together by hand from the broadcast. What follows is a blow by blow account of that comeback, and how each play moved the win probability needle:
Miller's win probability contributions:
If you want to relive the moment, you can't go wrong with ESPN's 30 for 30 feature Winning Time, And Shea Serrano has a feature today on Grantland about his experiences as a young Reggie Miller fan in the mid-nineties (I, too, missed the 8 points in 9 seconds miracle due to the mistaken belief that the game was over). I'm not the writer Shea is, and I'm certainly not a filmmaker, but I can put Reggie's achievement in a historical context of sorts.
At its core, this site's NBA win probability model is a set of historical benchmarks. When teams hold a 10 point lead midway through the second quarter, they tend to win about 75% of the time. That same 10 point lead midway through the fourth quarter results in victory about 96% of the time. And so on.
And when a team is trailing by six points with 18 seconds to go, as the Pacers were 20 years ago, victory is just an 0.4% proposition. Official play by play data is not available for the 1994-95 season, but I was able to cobble it together by hand from the broadcast. What follows is a blow by blow account of that comeback, and how each play moved the win probability needle:
| time left | score | game state | win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18.7 | down 6 | with possession | 0.4% |
| Reggie Miller makes catch and shoot three pointer (+2.3%) | |||
| 16.4 | down 3 | opponent with possession | 2.7% |
| Reggie Miller steals inbounds pass (+6.3%) | |||
| 16.4 | down 3 | with possession | 9.0% |
| Reggie Miller makes turnaround three pointer (+28.9%) | |||
| 13.2 | tied | opponent with possession | 37.9% |
| Derrick McKey fouls John Starks (-10.8%) | |||
| 13.2 | tied | opponent with two foul shots | 27.1% |
| John Starks misses first free throw (+15.0%) | |||
| 13.2 | tied | opponent with one foul shot | 42.1% |
| John Starks misses second free throw (+16.8%) | |||
| 13.2 | tied | opponent missed free throw | 58.9% |
| Patrick Ewing rebounds missed free throw (-20.7%) | |||
| 10.5 | tied | opponent with possession | 38.2% |
| Patrick Ewing misses 7 foot jump shot (+16.4%) | |||
| 10.0 | tied | opponent missed field goal | 54.6% |
| Reggie Miller rebounds missed field goal (+6.6%) | |||
| 8.5 | tied | with possession | 61.2% |
| Reggie Miller fouled (+16.0%) | |||
| 7.5 | tied | shooting two free throws | 77.2% |
| Reggie Miller makes first free throw (+4.9%) | |||
| 7.5 | up 1 | shooting one free throw | 82.1% |
| Reggie Miller makes second free throw (+3.6%) | |||
| 7.5 | up 2 | opponent with possession | 85.7% |
| Knicks fail to get a shot off in regulation (+14.3%) | |||
| PACERS WIN | 100.0% | ||
Miller's win probability contributions:
- The first three pointer: +2.3%
- The steal: +6.3%
- The second three pointer: +28.9% (the presence of mind!)
- Rebounding Ewing's miss: +6.6%
- Getting fouled: +16.0%
- Making the first free throw: +4.9%
- Making the second free throw: 3.6%
- Total: 68.6%
Then you have the two John Starks missed free throws, worth -32% in win probability, and Ewing's miss from point blank range, worth -21%. What surprises me is how little the first two plays in the series are worth. A three point deficit and the ball gets you within "striking distance", but that's still just a 9% chance with 13 seconds left.
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