Turnover Index - Week 10
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 10. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.
Week 9 results
There were no week 9 games that satisfied our betting criteria, but here is a summary of season to date performance. We are at a 4.8% ROI so far off of our hypothetical $1,000 bankroll.
| week | bets | won | starting bankroll | amount bet | profits | ending bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 2 | 2 | $1,000 | $51 (5.2%) | $47 | $1,047 |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | $1,047 | $26 (2.6%) | $1 | $1,048 |
Week 10 Picks
There are two bets against the spread this week. We are wagering 3.1% of our bankroll in total. The table below shows the turnover differential, probability of covering, and the recommended fraction of bankroll to bet, according to the Kelly Criterion.
| turnovers | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| game | away | home | diff | per game | pick | prob | bet |
| Chiefs @ Bills | 5 | 18 | 13 | 1.6 | Chiefs | 53.7% | 2.8% |
| Steelers @ Jets | 13 | 3 | -10 | -1.1 | Jets | 52.5% | 0.3% |
The "Old" Index
Under the original, simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 defensive turnover differential between the teams), season to date results for 2014 are 2-0 against the spread.
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