Playoff Implications - Week 6

Here is your week 6 guide to playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

The playoff implications below are derived from the same simulation I run to calculate playoff seed probabilities for my daily NFL rankings. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.

Ranking Week 6 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 6 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
NE @ BUF	31.4%
IND @ HOU	27.3%
NYG @ PHI	27.1%
CAR @ CIN	20.9%
DET @ MIN	19.3%
CHI @ ATL	18.9%
SF @ STL	18.8%
GB @ MIA	18.0%
BAL @ TB	17.5%
SD @ OAK	16.0%
PIT @ CLE	15.3%
WAS @ ARZ	15.3%
DAL @ SEA	12.0%
DEN @ NYJ	4.8%
JAC @ TEN	0.4%

The top two games this week feature matchups between division rivals with 3-2 records. Both the Patriots' and Bills' playoff hopes swing by 32% based on the outcome of their game. The stakes are high for the Texans as well, with a swing factor of 28%. The Colts are somewhat more secure in their playoff outlook, owing to their higher ranking than the Texans, but a 22% change in playoff odds is still significant.

At the bottom of the table, we have the remainder of the AFC South. The Titans cling to a 1% playoff probability, and can bump that up to 1.4% (yay?) with a win over the Jaguars. The Jaguars playoff probability had flatlined by week 4, and a win over the Titans is not going to change that.

Beyond Week 6

We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 7-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
12	BAL @ NO	32.3%
9	NO @ CAR	30.9%
16	ATL @ NO	30.3%
16	BAL @ HOU	30.2%
7	ATL @ BAL	30.2%
15	MIA @ NE	29.9%
7	NO @ DET	29.9%
9	PHI @ HOU	29.7%
10	SF @ NO	29.3%
8	DET @ ATL	29.2%

Week 6 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 6. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

WAS@ARZ CHI@ATL NE@BUF CAR@CIN PIT@CLE IND@HOU GB@MIA DET@MIN DEN@NYJ SD@OAK NYG@PHI DAL@SEA SF@STL BAL@TB JAC@TEN  OR Select Team: ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB HOU IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ OAK PHI PIT SD SEA SF STL TB TEN WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
NE @ BUF	39.6%	BUF	28.9%	16.1%	48.4%	32.3%	15.8%
NE @ BUF	39.6%	NE	66.3%	78.9%	47.1%	-31.8%	15.6%
IND @ HOU	41.4%	HOU	46.7%	35.1%	63.1%	27.9%	13.8%
NYG @ PHI	59.7%	PHI	51.9%	35.2%	63.1%	27.9%	13.7%
NYG @ PHI	59.7%	NYG	38.9%	55.2%	27.9%	-27.3%	13.4%
DET @ MIN	42.6%	DET	48.7%	58.8%	35.1%	-23.6%	11.7%
SF @ STL	38.0%	SF	42.2%	51.1%	27.8%	-23.3%	11.3%
IND @ HOU	41.4%	IND	82.5%	91.7%	69.4%	-22.4%	11.0%
BAL @ TB	39.5%	BAL	54.7%	62.6%	42.6%	-19.9%	9.7%
WAS @ ARZ	60.4%	ARZ	38.5%	26.9%	46.1%	19.3%	9.4%
SD @ OAK	26.7%	SD	68.9%	74.5%	53.5%	-21.1%	9.3%
PIT @ CLE	56.4%	PIT	21.5%	31.6%	13.6%	-18.0%	8.9%
CHI @ ATL	59.9%	ATL	33.1%	23.0%	39.8%	16.8%	8.2%
DAL @ SEA	76.1%	DAL	66.7%	80.9%	62.3%	-18.7%	8.0%
GB @ MIA	39.0%	MIA	24.0%	18.0%	33.4%	15.4%	7.5%
CAR @ CIN	72.7%	CIN	75.8%	64.8%	80.0%	15.1%	6.7%
PIT @ CLE	56.4%	CLE	12.4%	5.1%	18.1%	12.9%	6.4%
CAR @ CIN	72.7%	CAR	30.4%	40.8%	26.5%	-14.4%	6.4%
CHI @ ATL	59.9%	CHI	11.9%	18.7%	7.3%	-11.4%	5.6%
GB @ MIA	39.0%	GB	85.0%	89.3%	78.3%	-10.9%	5.3%
DEN @ NYJ	24.8%	DEN	93.0%	95.3%	86.0%	-9.2%	4.0%
DET @ MIN	42.6%	MIN	5.5%	2.2%	10.0%	7.8%	3.9%
CHI @ ATL	59.9%	NO	47.1%	50.8%	44.6%	-6.2%	3.0%
DAL @ SEA	76.1%	SEA	95.9%	91.0%	97.4%	6.4%	2.7%
SF @ STL	38.0%	DET	48.7%	46.8%	51.8%	5.0%	2.4%
SD @ OAK	26.7%	KC	22.9%	21.5%	27.0%	5.5%	2.4%
CAR @ CIN	72.7%	NO	47.1%	43.5%	48.4%	4.9%	2.2%
GB @ MIA	39.0%	NE	66.3%	68.1%	63.7%	-4.4%	2.1%
CHI @ ATL	59.9%	CAR	30.4%	32.9%	28.7%	-4.1%	2.0%
SF @ STL	38.0%	ARZ	38.5%	37.0%	41.0%	4.1%	2.0%
SD @ OAK	26.7%	BAL	54.7%	53.6%	57.8%	4.3%	1.9%
CAR @ CIN	72.7%	ATL	33.1%	30.1%	34.2%	4.2%	1.9%
SF @ STL	38.0%	PHI	51.9%	50.5%	54.2%	3.7%	1.8%
CAR @ CIN	72.7%	SD	68.9%	71.8%	67.8%	-4.0%	1.8%
WAS @ ARZ	60.4%	WAS	2.4%	4.5%	1.1%	-3.4%	1.7%
CAR @ CIN	72.7%	BAL	54.7%	57.4%	53.7%	-3.7%	1.7%
SD @ OAK	26.7%	HOU	46.7%	45.7%	49.5%	3.7%	1.7%
BAL @ TB	39.5%	SD	68.9%	67.6%	70.9%	3.3%	1.6%
GB @ MIA	39.0%	BUF	28.9%	30.2%	26.9%	-3.2%	1.6%
IND @ HOU	41.4%	BUF	28.9%	30.2%	27.1%	-3.1%	1.5%
BAL @ TB	39.5%	CIN	75.8%	74.6%	77.7%	3.1%	1.5%
WAS @ ARZ	60.4%	SF	42.2%	44.0%	41.1%	-2.9%	1.4%
WAS @ ARZ	60.4%	PHI	51.9%	53.6%	50.7%	-2.9%	1.4%
BAL @ TB	39.5%	HOU	46.7%	45.6%	48.5%	2.9%	1.4%
DET @ MIN	42.6%	SF	42.2%	41.1%	43.8%	2.8%	1.4%
WAS @ ARZ	60.4%	DAL	66.7%	68.4%	65.7%	-2.7%	1.3%
DAL @ SEA	76.1%	NYG	38.9%	36.6%	39.6%	3.0%	1.3%
DET @ MIN	42.6%	GB	85.0%	83.9%	86.5%	2.6%	1.3%
BAL @ TB	39.5%	PIT	21.5%	20.4%	23.1%	2.6%	1.3%
DET @ MIN	42.6%	CHI	11.9%	11.0%	13.1%	2.1%	1.0%
BAL @ TB	39.5%	CLE	12.4%	11.6%	13.7%	2.1%	1.0%
IND @ HOU	41.4%	GB	85.0%	84.2%	86.2%	2.0%	1.0%
SF @ STL	38.0%	CHI	11.9%	11.2%	13.1%	1.9%	0.9%
BAL @ TB	39.5%	TB	1.3%	0.6%	2.4%	1.8%	0.9%
GB @ MIA	39.0%	MIN	5.5%	4.8%	6.6%	1.7%	0.9%
DEN @ NYJ	24.8%	NYJ	1.2%	0.8%	2.6%	1.8%	0.8%
SD @ OAK	26.7%	DEN	93.0%	92.6%	94.1%	1.6%	0.7%
GB @ MIA	39.0%	SEA	95.9%	95.4%	96.6%	1.3%	0.6%
JAC @ TEN	69.6%	TEN	1.1%	0.4%	1.4%	1.0%	0.4%
SF @ STL	38.0%	STL	0.5%	0.2%	0.9%	0.7%	0.3%
CAR @ CIN	72.7%	TB	1.3%	0.8%	1.5%	0.7%	0.3%