Playoff Implications - Week 1
Too soon? Or not soon enough? The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background). It may seem premature to start talking playoffs already, but with a sixteen game schedule, even week one results can create meaningful shifts in the postseason outlook.
The playoff implications below are derived from the same simulation I run to calculate playoff seed probabilities for my daily NFL rankings. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups.
For example, the Bengals' chances of making the playoffs can swing by 24%, depending on the outcome of their season opener against the Ravens. If the Bengals win, their expected playoff probability is 63%. They lose and it's significantly lower at 38%. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.
Not too surprisingly, the top 3 games in week 1 are divisional matchups featuring teams with, at minimum, a respectable shot at making the playoffs. The bottom two games feature four teams whose playoff chances could be charitably described as "mathematically possible".
Of the top 10 high leverage games, three will take place next week.
The playoff implications below are derived from the same simulation I run to calculate playoff seed probabilities for my daily NFL rankings. I can group the simulation runs by the outcome of each game and then see how a team's playoff chances vary between the two groups.
For example, the Bengals' chances of making the playoffs can swing by 24%, depending on the outcome of their season opener against the Ravens. If the Bengals win, their expected playoff probability is 63%. They lose and it's significantly lower at 38%. The interactive table at the bottom of the post will allow you to see corresponding results for any game or team.
Ranking Week 1 Games by Leverage
The table below ranks the week 1 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.
| Game | Leverage |
|---|---|
| NE @ MIA | 23.7% |
| CIN @ BAL | 23.6% |
| NO @ ATL | 23.0% |
| GB @ SEA | 21.4% |
| BUF @ CHI | 20.5% |
| SF @ DAL | 20.1% |
| WAS @ HOU | 19.9% |
| CLE @ PIT | 19.2% |
| NYG @ DET | 17.7% |
| TEN @ KC | 17.1% |
| SD @ ARZ | 15.9% |
| CAR @ TB | 15.0% |
| IND @ DEN | 13.2% |
| JAC @ PHI | 12.2% |
| MIN @ STL | 8.8% |
| OAK @ NYJ | 7.2% |
Not too surprisingly, the top 3 games in week 1 are divisional matchups featuring teams with, at minimum, a respectable shot at making the playoffs. The bottom two games feature four teams whose playoff chances could be charitably described as "mathematically possible".
Beyond Week 1
We can also use the simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 2-17 games by total leverage.
| Week | Game | Leverage |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | DET @ GB | 29.4% |
| 2 | PHI @ IND | 28.1% |
| 7 | HOU @ PIT | 27.8% |
| 13 | PHI @ DAL | 27.2% |
| 4 | NO @ DAL | 26.8% |
| 2 | DET @ CAR | 26.3% |
| 2 | PIT @ BAL | 26.2% |
| 9 | BAL @ PIT | 25.9% |
| 7 | NO @ DET | 25.8% |
| 17 | CIN @ PIT | 25.7% |
Of the top 10 high leverage games, three will take place next week.
Week 1 Cheat Sheet
And here is your cheat sheet for week 1. You can filter by game or team below. I have already filtered out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.
| Select Game: | OR Select Team: |
| home team: | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| game | game prob | team | playoff prob | loses | wins | swing | leverage |
| CIN @ BAL | 55.7% | CIN | 51.0% | 64.0% | 40.7% | -23.3% | 11.6% |
| NO @ ATL | 46.9% | NO | 61.8% | 72.2% | 50.0% | -22.2% | 11.1% |
| CIN @ BAL | 55.7% | BAL | 45.9% | 33.7% | 55.5% | 21.8% | 10.8% |
| NE @ MIA | 41.0% | MIA | 29.5% | 20.7% | 42.0% | 21.3% | 10.5% |
| CAR @ TB | 45.9% | CAR | 42.6% | 52.0% | 31.4% | -20.6% | 10.2% |
| CLE @ PIT | 70.5% | PIT | 53.4% | 37.8% | 60.0% | 22.1% | 10.1% |
| NO @ ATL | 46.9% | ATL | 28.2% | 19.1% | 38.5% | 19.4% | 9.7% |
| NYG @ DET | 63.9% | DET | 36.6% | 25.2% | 43.1% | 17.8% | 8.6% |
| TEN @ KC | 70.6% | KC | 39.3% | 26.0% | 44.8% | 18.7% | 8.5% |
| SF @ DAL | 42.5% | SF | 72.5% | 79.7% | 62.7% | -16.9% | 8.4% |
| NE @ MIA | 41.0% | NE | 82.0% | 88.9% | 72.1% | -16.8% | 8.3% |
| NYG @ DET | 63.9% | NYG | 27.8% | 38.7% | 21.7% | -17.1% | 8.2% |
| SF @ DAL | 42.5% | DAL | 35.4% | 28.4% | 44.9% | 16.5% | 8.2% |
| SD @ ARZ | 59.9% | SD | 30.4% | 39.4% | 24.3% | -15.2% | 7.4% |
| GB @ SEA | 65.5% | SEA | 79.2% | 69.0% | 84.6% | 15.6% | 7.4% |
| GB @ SEA | 65.5% | GB | 68.7% | 78.8% | 63.4% | -15.4% | 7.3% |
| IND @ DEN | 73.7% | IND | 64.7% | 76.6% | 60.5% | -16.2% | 7.1% |
| CLE @ PIT | 70.5% | CLE | 17.0% | 27.9% | 12.4% | -15.4% | 7.0% |
| WAS @ HOU | 59.1% | HOU | 42.5% | 34.5% | 48.0% | 13.5% | 6.6% |
| TEN @ KC | 70.6% | TEN | 20.8% | 30.8% | 16.6% | -14.2% | 6.5% |
| BUF @ CHI | 71.6% | CHI | 36.0% | 26.3% | 39.9% | 13.5% | 6.1% |
| JAC @ PHI | 83.3% | PHI | 46.8% | 33.4% | 49.4% | 16.0% | 6.0% |
| CAR @ TB | 45.9% | TB | 11.6% | 6.5% | 17.7% | 11.3% | 5.6% |
| WAS @ HOU | 59.1% | WAS | 19.2% | 25.6% | 14.8% | -10.9% | 5.3% |
| BUF @ CHI | 71.6% | BUF | 15.8% | 23.9% | 12.7% | -11.2% | 5.1% |
| SD @ ARZ | 59.9% | ARZ | 18.3% | 12.3% | 22.3% | 10.0% | 4.9% |
| OAK @ NYJ | 70.8% | NYJ | 15.0% | 8.7% | 17.7% | 9.0% | 4.1% |
| IND @ DEN | 73.7% | DEN | 89.1% | 82.5% | 91.4% | 8.9% | 3.9% |
| MIN @ STL | 64.0% | STL | 9.0% | 4.6% | 11.4% | 6.8% | 3.3% |
| MIN @ STL | 64.0% | MIN | 6.2% | 9.7% | 4.2% | -5.5% | 2.7% |
| IND @ DEN | 73.7% | HOU | 42.5% | 38.7% | 43.9% | 5.1% | 2.3% |
| NYG @ DET | 63.9% | PHI | 46.8% | 43.8% | 48.4% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
| BUF @ CHI | 71.6% | SD | 30.4% | 27.5% | 31.5% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| JAC @ PHI | 83.3% | WAS | 19.2% | 23.2% | 18.4% | -4.7% | 1.8% |
| NYG @ DET | 63.9% | HOU | 42.5% | 44.6% | 41.3% | -3.3% | 1.6% |
| CIN @ BAL | 55.7% | HOU | 42.5% | 40.8% | 43.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| WAS @ HOU | 59.1% | DAL | 35.4% | 33.6% | 36.7% | 3.1% | 1.5% |
| BUF @ CHI | 71.6% | DET | 36.6% | 38.8% | 35.8% | -3.1% | 1.4% |
| OAK @ NYJ | 70.8% | CHI | 36.0% | 38.1% | 35.2% | -3.0% | 1.4% |
| CAR @ TB | 45.9% | NE | 82.0% | 83.3% | 80.6% | -2.7% | 1.3% |
| BUF @ CHI | 71.6% | MIA | 29.5% | 27.4% | 30.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| SF @ DAL | 42.5% | NYG | 27.8% | 28.9% | 26.3% | -2.6% | 1.3% |
| WAS @ HOU | 59.1% | IND | 64.7% | 66.2% | 63.7% | -2.6% | 1.3% |
| CAR @ TB | 45.9% | DAL | 35.4% | 34.3% | 36.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| CLE @ PIT | 70.5% | SEA | 79.2% | 81.1% | 78.4% | -2.6% | 1.2% |
| WAS @ HOU | 59.1% | PHI | 46.8% | 45.3% | 47.8% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| WAS @ HOU | 59.1% | TEN | 20.8% | 22.2% | 19.8% | -2.4% | 1.2% |
| WAS @ HOU | 59.1% | CIN | 51.0% | 52.5% | 50.0% | -2.4% | 1.2% |
| NE @ MIA | 41.0% | CLE | 17.0% | 18.0% | 15.6% | -2.4% | 1.2% |
| OAK @ NYJ | 70.8% | CAR | 42.6% | 44.4% | 41.8% | -2.6% | 1.2% |
| JAC @ PHI | 83.3% | DAL | 35.4% | 38.0% | 34.9% | -3.1% | 1.2% |
| SD @ ARZ | 59.9% | DEN | 89.1% | 87.7% | 90.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| CAR @ TB | 45.9% | ATL | 28.2% | 27.1% | 29.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| BUF @ CHI | 71.6% | NYJ | 15.0% | 13.3% | 15.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| MIN @ STL | 64.0% | CIN | 51.0% | 52.5% | 50.2% | -2.3% | 1.1% |
| WAS @ HOU | 59.1% | KC | 39.3% | 40.6% | 38.4% | -2.2% | 1.1% |
| CAR @ TB | 45.9% | CIN | 51.0% | 50.1% | 52.2% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| SF @ DAL | 42.5% | SEA | 79.2% | 78.3% | 80.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| SD @ ARZ | 59.9% | NE | 82.0% | 80.8% | 82.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| NO @ ATL | 46.9% | KC | 39.3% | 38.3% | 40.4% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| WAS @ HOU | 59.1% | CLE | 17.0% | 18.2% | 16.2% | -2.0% | 1.0% |
| IND @ DEN | 73.7% | TEN | 20.8% | 19.1% | 21.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% |
| OAK @ NYJ | 70.8% | KC | 39.3% | 40.8% | 38.6% | -2.2% | 1.0% |
| NE @ MIA | 41.0% | BAL | 45.9% | 46.7% | 44.7% | -2.0% | 1.0% |
| JAC @ PHI | 83.3% | HOU | 42.5% | 40.3% | 42.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| NYG @ DET | 63.9% | GB | 68.7% | 70.0% | 68.0% | -2.0% | 1.0% |
| BUF @ CHI | 71.6% | GB | 68.7% | 70.3% | 68.1% | -2.1% | 1.0% |
| SD @ ARZ | 59.9% | TEN | 20.8% | 19.7% | 21.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| OAK @ NYJ | 70.8% | GB | 68.7% | 67.3% | 69.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| CLE @ PIT | 70.5% | BUF | 15.8% | 17.3% | 15.3% | -2.0% | 0.9% |
| IND @ DEN | 73.7% | MIA | 29.5% | 31.0% | 28.9% | -2.1% | 0.9% |
| CIN @ BAL | 55.7% | NYJ | 15.0% | 16.0% | 14.2% | -1.8% | 0.9% |
| OAK @ NYJ | 70.8% | OAK | 1.3% | 2.6% | 0.8% | -1.8% | 0.8% |
| BUF @ CHI | 71.6% | SEA | 79.2% | 80.5% | 78.7% | -1.8% | 0.8% |
| GB @ SEA | 65.5% | NYJ | 15.0% | 16.1% | 14.5% | -1.7% | 0.8% |
| NYG @ DET | 63.9% | STL | 9.0% | 10.0% | 8.4% | -1.6% | 0.8% |
| MIN @ STL | 64.0% | TB | 11.6% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| WAS @ HOU | 59.1% | NYJ | 15.0% | 15.9% | 14.4% | -1.5% | 0.7% |
| JAC @ PHI | 83.3% | JAC | 2.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% | -1.8% | 0.7% |
| WAS @ HOU | 59.1% | MIN | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| GB @ SEA | 65.5% | JAC | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
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