Transitive College Football Power Rankings - Bowl Games Edition
December 27, 2014
In a recent post ( My Team's Proxy Can Beat Up Your Team's Proxy ), I laid out an approach for comparing two college football teams ...
Turnover Index - Week 16
December 17, 2014
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 16. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalu...
Week 16 Playoff Implications
December 17, 2014
Week 16 playoff implications are now available at FiveThirtyEight . This week, the "best case" interactive has been upgraded wit...
Turnover Index - Week 14
December 06, 2014
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 14. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalu...
My Team's Proxy Can Beat Up Your Team's Proxy
December 04, 2014
In a few days , the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will release their final team rankings. The committee ranks the top ...
Week 14 Playoff Implications
December 04, 2014
Week 14 Playoff Implications are now up at FiveThirtyEight . Reuben Fischer-Baum has added yet another nifty interactive to our weekly feat...
Turnover Index - Week 13
November 26, 2014
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 13. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalu...
Week 13 Playoff Implications
November 26, 2014
Your guide to meaningful football is now available at FiveThirtyEight . This week's column is fairly brief. We focus on the Thanksgiving...
Week 12 Playoff Implications Available at FiveThirtyEight
November 19, 2014
Our weekly NFL playoff implications cheat sheet is now available at FiveThirtyEight . This week, I took at the possibility of a five win NFC...
Turnover Index - Week 12
November 19, 2014
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 12. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalu...
Turnover Index - Week 11
November 15, 2014
There are no picks that satisfy our betting criteria this week, but here is a check in on last week's performance. The Turnover Index ...
Week 11 Playoff Implications Now Available
November 13, 2014
Week Eleven playoff implications are now available at FiveThirtyEight . As an Indianapolis native, I don't need any help getting geared ...
NBA Win Probability Graphs for the 2014-15 Season
November 08, 2014
Current WPA leader, Minnesota's Kevin Martin NBA Win Probability Graphs and Box Scores are now available for the 2014-15 season. All...
Turnover Index - Week 10
November 08, 2014
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 10. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalu...
Week 10 Playoff Implications now available
November 06, 2014
Week 10 Playoff Implications are now available at FiveThirtyEight . We have some added interactivity for this week's feature. Games ca...
Turnover Index - Week 9
October 31, 2014
Here are the Turnover Index picks (of which there are none) for Week 9. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory...
Week Nine Playoff Implications now available
October 29, 2014
Week nine playoff implications, complete with interactive charts, are now available at FiveThirtyEight . There are a lot of high leverage g...
The NBA Returns
October 28, 2014
Note: It appears I have jumped the gun with my original post. My play by play data source drastically altered its formatting over the offsea...
Week Eight Playoff Implications now up at FiveThirtyEight
October 22, 2014
Week eight playoff implications, complete with interactive charts, are now available at FiveThirtyEight . Cincinnati is on the hot seat th...
Turnover Index - Week 8
October 22, 2014
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 8. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalue...
Playoff Implications moving to FiveThirtyEight
October 16, 2014
I'm excited to announce that my Playoff Implications feature is moving to FiveThirtyEight . Here is a link to the week seven column ....
Turnover Index - Week 7
October 16, 2014
Finally, a chance to lose some money. Week seven marks the first official appearance of the Turnover Index . The Turnover Index is a simple...
Playoff Implications - Week 6
October 08, 2014
Here is your week 6 guide to playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on th...
Turnover Index - Week 5
October 04, 2014
Just a heads up that I plan on continuing the Turnover Index for the 2014 season. But there are no games that satisfy our betting criteria ...
NFL Week 4 Power Ranking Roundup
October 04, 2014
Last year the Carolina Panthers, after starting the season 1-2, led the NFL in win percentage from weeks five through sixteen , winning 10 ...
Playoff Implications - Week 5
September 30, 2014
Here is your week 5 guide to playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on th...
Playoff Implications - Week 4
September 24, 2014
Here is your week 4 guide to playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on th...
College Football Rankings Now Available
September 23, 2014
Betting market rankings for college football are now available (and will update daily). As I did with my NFL rankings , I have moved these...
Playoff Implications - Week 3
September 18, 2014
After a one week hiatus , playoff implications are back for week 3. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a signifi...
NFL Rankings
September 05, 2014
Just a heads up that, due to circumstances beyond my control, my NFL rankings may only be updated intermittently over the next week or so. ...
Playoff Implications - Week 1
September 01, 2014
Too soon? Or not soon enough ? The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a significant impact on the playoff picture (s...
Daily NFL Rankings - With Playoff Seed Projections
August 30, 2014
My betting market rankings for the NFL are now up and running (see here for the first look). To improve access to the table, which had been...
NFL Home Underdogs - A Reminder
August 26, 2014
An update on last year's post on NFL home underdogs . From 1989 to 2003, NFL home underdogs went 53.5% against the spread. But for the n...
How to improve your chances of scoring a goal in soccer? Concede one first.
August 23, 2014
" If you want to be a millionaire, start with a billion dollars and launch a new airline ." - Richard Branson, Virgin CEO A...
2014 NFL Rankings - First Look
August 14, 2014
As I did last year , and the year before , here is a pre-season NFL power ranking. My rankings are not based on stats, scouting, off-seaso...
On the Probability of Scoring a Goal
July 12, 2014
In this post, I will describe my attempts to model the probability of a goal being scored in soccer. After correcting for team imbalances, I...
Tennis matches and luck
July 04, 2014
Tennis, like most sports, is largely a matter of scoring more points than your opponent. But the game-set-match scoring system used in tenn...
Top Match Finder for Tennis
June 29, 2014
Win probability graphs are up and running for Wimbledon matches. With 127 matches played in each major tournament, it can be difficult to t...
Live USA-Germany Win Probabilities
June 26, 2014
As always, I don't guarantee this live updates will work, but if all goes well, check the following link at noon ET for a live updating ...
The Betting Odds of a US-Germany Tie
June 24, 2014
Collusion theories abound in advance of this Thursday's US-Germany World Cup match. A tie in that match would send both the US and Ger...
In-Match Soccer Probability
June 21, 2014
Futbol! In what is becoming somewhat of an obsession, I've added a new sport to my suite of win probability tools: In-Match Soccer P...
Live Win Probabilities for Game 5
June 15, 2014
The win probability graph will be updating live for tonight's (potentially final) game between the Heat and the Spurs. Here is the lin...
Never Bet a Horse Named Joe
June 09, 2014
In this post, I will attempt to determine whether horses with popular first names (e.g. Michael, Mary, etc.) are overbet by the public. W...
Guest Post at Deadspin: Why do NBA Playoff Games Take So Long?
June 06, 2014
I have a guest post up at Regressing ( Deadspin 's stat geek subsection): Why Do NBA Playoff Games Take So Long? This builds upon m...
Game Six Revisited
June 05, 2014
With the Heat and the Spurs due to face off again in the NBA Finals, replays from last year's dramatic Game Six are sure to feature heav...
French Open Graphs - Now with Market Odds
June 01, 2014
My win probability graphs for the French Open now feature a toggle which allows you to view probabilities that are calibrated to the bettin...
French Open Win Probability Graphs
May 26, 2014
As I did with the Australian Open (and intend to do with all grand slam events this year), I will be providing win probability graphs for a...
Top Game Finder for the NBA
May 25, 2014
Top. Games. As I mentioned yesterday , win probability graphs are now available for the 2012-13 NBA season . For the lazy among you that...
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- Turnover Index - Week 13
- Week 13 Playoff Implications
- Week 12 Playoff Implications Available at FiveThir...
- Turnover Index - Week 12
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- Week 11 Playoff Implications Now Available
- NBA Win Probability Graphs for the 2014-15 Season
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- Turnover Index - Week 9
- Week Nine Playoff Implications now available
- The NBA Returns
- Week Eight Playoff Implications now up at FiveThir...
- Turnover Index - Week 8
- Playoff Implications moving to FiveThirtyEight
- Turnover Index - Week 7
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- NFL Week 4 Power Ranking Roundup
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- Top Match Finder for Tennis
- Live USA-Germany Win Probabilities
- The Betting Odds of a US-Germany Tie
- In-Match Soccer Probability
- Live Win Probabilities for Game 5
- Never Bet a Horse Named Joe
- Guest Post at Deadspin: Why do NBA Playoff Games T...
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2/3/2013 Update: A more mobile friendly version of the chart: Squares Payouts . My most recent two posts covered the concept of in-game ... -
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In this post I will lay out an approach for measuring clutch play in the NBA, using my win probability model as the underlying framewor...
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