Turnover Index - Week 15
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 15. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.
Week 14 results
There were no week 14 results as no bets met our criteria. Here is the season-to-date performance:
- Against the Spread: 11-15-1
- Starting Bankroll: $1,000
- Current Bankroll: $775 (-20% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:
| week | bets | won | starting bankroll | amount bet | profits | ending bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | 0 | $1,000 | $268 (26.8%) | ($268) | $731 |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | $731 | $32 (4.5%) | $29 | $761 |
| 7 | 3 | 3 | $761 | $130 (17.1%) | $118 | $879 |
| 8 | 3 | 1 | $879 | $70 (8.1%) | ($12) | $867 |
| 9 | 7 | 2 | $867 | $166 (19.2%) | ($66) | $800 |
| 10 | 4 | 1.5 | $800 | $95 (11.9%) | ($45) | $755 |
| 11 | 2 | 0 | $755 | $14 (1.9%) | ($14) | $741 |
| 12 | 1 | 1 | $741 | $37 (5.1%) | $34 | $775 |
| 13 | 4 | 2 | $775 | $46 (5.9%) | $21 | $797 |
Week 15 Pick
There is one bet against the spread this week. We are wagering 2.3% of our bankroll in total. The table below shows the turnover differential, probability of covering, and the recommended fraction of bankroll to bet, according to the Kelly Criterion.
| turnovers | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| game | away | home | diff | per game | pick | prob | bet |
| Jets @ Panthers | 10 | 26 | 16 | 1.2 | Jets | 53.5% | 2.3% |
The "Old" Index
Under last season's simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 turnover differential), season to date results for 2013 are 9-9-1 against the spread. There are two additional bets this week according to the old criteria, in addition to the bet on the Jets above. Those bets are: Raiders over Chiefs and Texans over Colts
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