Turnover Index - Week 13
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 13. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.
Week 12 results
The Week 12 pick went 1-0 against the spread, with a $34 gain to the bankroll. Here are the season to date results:
- Against the Spread: 9-13-1
- Starting Bankroll: $1,000
- Current Bankroll: $775 (-22% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:
| week | bets | won | starting bankroll | amount bet | profits | ending bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | 0 | $1,000 | $268 (26.8%) | ($268) | $731 |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | $731 | $32 (4.5%) | $29 | $761 |
| 7 | 3 | 3 | $761 | $130 (17.1%) | $118 | $879 |
| 8 | 3 | 1 | $879 | $70 (8.1%) | ($12) | $867 |
| 9 | 7 | 2 | $867 | $166 (19.2%) | ($66) | $800 |
| 10 | 4 | 1.5 | $800 | $95 (11.9%) | ($45) | $755 |
| 11 | 2 | 0 | $755 | $14 (1.9%) | ($14) | $741 |
| 12 | 1 | 1 | $741 | $37 (5.1%) | $34 | $775 |
Week 13 Picks
There are four bets against the spread this week. We are wagering 5.9% of our bankroll in total. The table below shows the turnover differential, probability of covering, and the recommended fraction of bankroll to bet, according to the Kelly Criterion.
| turnovers | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| game | away | home | diff | per game | pick | prob | bet |
| Bengals @ Chargers | 20 | 9 | -11 | -1.0 | Chargers | 52.8% | 0.9% |
| Falcons @ Bills | 8 | 20 | 12 | 1.1 | Falcons | 53.1% | 1.5% |
| Dolphins @ Jets | 18 | 8 | -10 | -0.9 | Jets | 52.6% | 0.4% |
| Patriots @ Texans | 23 | 8 | -15 | -1.4 | Texans | 53.9% | 3.1% |
The "Old" Index
Under last season's simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 turnover differential), season to date results for 2013 are 6-7-1 against the spread.
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