Playoff Implications - Week 13

Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a big impact on the playoff picture (see this post for background).

Ranking Week 13 Games by Leverage

The table below ranks the week 13 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.

Game	Leverage
ARZ @ PHI	48.2%
GB @ DET	41.3%
PIT @ BAL	33.2%
TEN @ IND	24.2%
STL @ SF	23.0%
CHI @ MIN	22.8%
MIA @ NYJ	20.3%
CIN @ SD	20.2%
RAI @ DAL	18.0%
TB @ CAR	12.5%
JAC @ CLE	3.2%
NYG @ WAS	2.5%
NO @ SEA	0.8%
ATL @ BUF	0.8%
DEN @ KC	0.7%
NE @ TEX	0.3%

Beyond Week 13

I can also use my simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 13-17 games by total leverage.

Week	Game	Leverage
17	PHI @ DAL	50.4%
14	DET @ PHI	48.9%
15	BAL @ DET	47.0%
17	SF @ ARZ	45.4%
15	ARZ @ TEN	43.8%
14	DAL @ CHI	40.5%
16	CHI @ PHI	40.0%
15	GB @ DAL	38.1%
16	PIT @ GB	35.6%
14	MIA @ PIT	34.6%

Week 13 Cheat Sheet

And here is your cheat sheet for week 12. You can filter by game or team below. As mentioned above, I have already weeded out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.

Select Game:

PIT@BAL ATL@BUF TB@CAR JAC@CLE RAI@DAL GB@DET TEN@IND DEN@KC CHI@MIN MIA@NYJ ARZ@PHI CIN@SD NO@SEA STL@SF NE@TEX NYG@WAS  OR Select Team: ARZ ATL BAL BUF CAR CHI CIN CLE DAL DEN DET GB IND JAC KC MIA MIN NE NO NYG NYJ PHI PIT RAI SD SEA SF STL TB TEN TEX WAS

				home team:
game	game prob	team	playoff prob	loses	wins	swing	leverage
GB @ DET	69.5%	DET	64.9%	33.9%	78.4%	44.5%	20.5%
ARZ @ PHI	62.4%	ARZ	29.9%	50.1%	17.8%	-32.2%	15.6%
GB @ DET	69.5%	GB	16.5%	38.6%	6.8%	-31.7%	14.6%
PIT @ BAL	59.8%	PIT	23.1%	41.0%	11.2%	-29.8%	14.6%
ARZ @ PHI	62.4%	PHI	43.3%	24.9%	54.4%	29.5%	14.3%
PIT @ BAL	59.8%	BAL	22.5%	5.6%	33.8%	28.2%	13.8%
TEN @ IND	64.1%	TEN	18.0%	34.8%	8.6%	-26.2%	12.6%
STL @ SF	74.2%	SF	67.2%	47.6%	74.1%	26.5%	11.6%
CIN @ SD	53.2%	SD	15.2%	3.8%	25.3%	21.5%	10.7%
CHI @ MIN	49.6%	CHI	21.8%	32.4%	11.1%	-21.3%	10.7%
MIA @ NYJ	56.0%	MIA	18.8%	30.9%	9.4%	-21.5%	10.7%
ARZ @ PHI	62.4%	DAL	64.5%	76.0%	57.5%	-18.6%	9.0%
RAI @ DAL	79.7%	DAL	64.5%	46.8%	68.9%	22.1%	8.9%
ARZ @ PHI	62.4%	SF	67.2%	57.3%	73.2%	15.8%	7.7%
MIA @ NYJ	56.0%	NYJ	10.8%	2.3%	17.5%	15.2%	7.6%
CIN @ SD	53.2%	CIN	90.7%	98.2%	84.1%	-14.1%	7.1%
RAI @ DAL	79.7%	PHI	43.3%	56.6%	39.9%	-16.7%	6.7%
TB @ CAR	77.2%	CAR	92.6%	80.6%	96.1%	15.5%	6.5%
CHI @ MIN	49.6%	DET	64.9%	58.7%	71.1%	12.4%	6.2%
GB @ DET	69.5%	CHI	21.8%	29.9%	18.3%	-11.6%	5.3%
STL @ SF	74.2%	ARZ	29.9%	38.4%	27.0%	-11.4%	5.0%
TEN @ IND	64.1%	PIT	23.1%	18.9%	25.5%	6.6%	3.2%
CHI @ MIN	49.6%	GB	16.5%	13.7%	19.4%	5.7%	2.9%
TEN @ IND	64.1%	IND	97.8%	94.1%	100.0%	5.9%	2.8%
TB @ CAR	77.2%	ARZ	29.9%	35.0%	28.5%	-6.5%	2.7%
TEN @ IND	64.1%	SD	15.2%	12.7%	16.7%	4.0%	1.9%
STL @ SF	74.2%	CAR	92.6%	95.6%	91.6%	-4.0%	1.8%
TEN @ IND	64.1%	BAL	22.5%	20.1%	23.8%	3.7%	1.8%
TEN @ IND	64.1%	NYJ	10.8%	8.6%	12.1%	3.5%	1.7%
TB @ CAR	77.2%	PHI	43.3%	46.3%	42.4%	-3.9%	1.6%
MIA @ NYJ	56.0%	TEN	18.0%	16.3%	19.4%	3.1%	1.5%
STL @ SF	74.2%	DAL	64.5%	67.0%	63.6%	-3.4%	1.5%
ARZ @ PHI	62.4%	CAR	92.6%	90.7%	93.7%	3.0%	1.5%
STL @ SF	74.2%	CHI	21.8%	24.2%	21.0%	-3.3%	1.4%
PIT @ BAL	59.8%	SD	15.2%	13.6%	16.3%	2.7%	1.3%
CIN @ SD	53.2%	NYJ	10.8%	12.2%	9.6%	-2.6%	1.3%
JAC @ CLE	72.6%	BAL	22.5%	24.5%	21.7%	-2.8%	1.3%
PIT @ BAL	59.8%	MIA	18.8%	20.4%	17.8%	-2.6%	1.3%
CHI @ MIN	49.6%	SF	67.2%	66.0%	68.5%	2.5%	1.2%
TB @ CAR	77.2%	SF	67.2%	69.5%	66.6%	-2.9%	1.2%
STL @ SF	74.2%	PHI	43.3%	45.1%	42.6%	-2.5%	1.1%
PIT @ BAL	59.8%	NYJ	10.8%	9.5%	11.7%	2.2%	1.1%
PIT @ BAL	59.8%	TEN	18.0%	19.3%	17.1%	-2.1%	1.1%
NYG @ WAS	60.0%	CHI	21.8%	20.5%	22.7%	2.1%	1.0%
NYG @ WAS	60.0%	DET	64.9%	66.1%	64.0%	-2.0%	1.0%
JAC @ CLE	72.6%	CLE	1.8%	0.1%	2.4%	2.2%	1.0%
CHI @ MIN	49.6%	TEN	18.0%	17.1%	18.9%	1.8%	0.9%
CIN @ SD	53.2%	GB	16.5%	17.4%	15.7%	-1.6%	0.8%
RAI @ DAL	79.7%	TEN	18.0%	16.4%	18.4%	2.0%	0.8%
ATL @ BUF	62.6%	BUF	1.2%	0.2%	1.8%	1.6%	0.8%
GB @ DET	69.5%	MIA	18.8%	17.7%	19.3%	1.7%	0.8%
JAC @ CLE	72.6%	NYJ	10.8%	9.6%	11.3%	1.7%	0.8%
NO @ SEA	70.0%	NO	99.0%	100.0%	98.6%	-1.4%	0.6%
CHI @ MIN	49.6%	CAR	92.6%	92.0%	93.2%	1.2%	0.6%
RAI @ DAL	79.7%	CAR	92.6%	93.7%	92.3%	-1.4%	0.6%
DEN @ KC	37.8%	CAR	92.6%	93.0%	91.9%	-1.1%	0.5%
RAI @ DAL	79.7%	RAI	0.3%	1.3%	0.1%	-1.3%	0.5%
MIA @ NYJ	56.0%	CLE	1.8%	1.3%	2.2%	0.9%	0.5%
STL @ SF	74.2%	STL	0.3%	0.9%	0.0%	-0.9%	0.4%
TEN @ IND	64.1%	CLE	1.8%	1.3%	2.0%	0.7%	0.3%
CHI @ MIN	49.6%	IND	97.8%	98.2%	97.5%	-0.7%	0.3%
TB @ CAR	77.2%	CLE	1.8%	2.4%	1.6%	-0.8%	0.3%
RAI @ DAL	79.7%	IND	97.8%	98.4%	97.7%	-0.7%	0.3%
NYG @ WAS	60.0%	BUF	1.2%	0.9%	1.5%	0.6%	0.3%
CIN @ SD	53.2%	BUF	1.2%	1.5%	1.0%	-0.6%	0.3%
STL @ SF	74.2%	NO	99.0%	99.4%	98.8%	-0.6%	0.3%
NYG @ WAS	60.0%	NYG	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%	-0.4%	0.2%
NE @ TEX	25.7%	NE	99.8%	99.9%	99.5%	-0.4%	0.2%
NO @ SEA	70.0%	SEA	99.9%	99.6%	100.0%	0.4%	0.2%
RAI @ DAL	79.7%	STL	0.3%	0.6%	0.2%	-0.4%	0.2%
ARZ @ PHI	62.4%	SEA	99.9%	99.7%	100.0%	0.3%	0.2%
JAC @ CLE	72.6%	RAI	0.3%	0.5%	0.2%	-0.3%	0.1%
NE @ TEX	25.7%	RAI	0.3%	0.2%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%
RAI @ DAL	79.7%	NYG	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%	-0.3%	0.1%
PIT @ BAL	59.8%	RAI	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%
DEN @ KC	37.8%	KC	99.9%	99.8%	100.0%	0.2%	0.1%
MIA @ NYJ	56.0%	NE	99.8%	99.7%	99.9%	0.2%	0.1%
GB @ DET	69.5%	KC	99.9%	100.0%	99.8%	-0.2%	0.1%
TB @ CAR	77.2%	SEA	99.9%	100.0%	99.8%	-0.2%	0.1%