Playoff Implications - Week 10
Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a big impact on the playoff picture (see last week's post for my first attempt). I can summarize the total impact a game is expected to have, as well as how it affects each particular team.
The main change from last week is that I am now filtering out results that aren't statistically significant. I am using the Fisher Exact Test for this purpose, with a significance level of 95%.
According to my modeling, the Eagles-Packers game is the clear top matchup, most likely because the outcome affects the NFC wild card race as well as two divisional races. One key callout here is that I am judging impact based solely on whether a team makes the playoffs. In other words, I ignore seeding implications. As we all know, seeding is important. For future weeks, I may simulate the playoffs as well to see which games have an impact on what we ultimately care about: Superbowl probability.
The NFC East and NFC North are wide open right now, so it's not too surprising that 3 of the top 4 games feature matchups between those two divisions.
The main change from last week is that I am now filtering out results that aren't statistically significant. I am using the Fisher Exact Test for this purpose, with a significance level of 95%.
Ranking Week 10 Games by Leverage
The table below ranks the week 10 games by total leverage. Leverage in this context is a measure of both how uncertain a game's outcome is (games between evenly matched teams have higher leverage) and how much the playoff picture swings as a result of that outcome.
| Game | Leverage |
|---|---|
| PHI @ GB | 40.4% |
| DET @ CHI | 32.6% |
| CAR @ SF | 26.9% |
| JAC @ TEN | 19.9% |
| CIN @ BAL | 19.0% |
| DAL @ NO | 18.0% |
| MIA @ TB | 17.4% |
| TEX @ ARZ | 13.0% |
| DEN @ SD | 12.0% |
| STL @ IND | 5.7% |
| RAI @ NYG | 3.9% |
| BUF @ PIT | 2.8% |
| SEA @ ATL | 0.6% |
According to my modeling, the Eagles-Packers game is the clear top matchup, most likely because the outcome affects the NFC wild card race as well as two divisional races. One key callout here is that I am judging impact based solely on whether a team makes the playoffs. In other words, I ignore seeding implications. As we all know, seeding is important. For future weeks, I may simulate the playoffs as well to see which games have an impact on what we ultimately care about: Superbowl probability.
Beyond Week 10
I can also use my simulation dataset to look ahead to the remainder of the season and see which games (based on what we know now) will have significant playoff implications. The table below shows the top 10 week 11-17 games by total leverage. Think of this as a cheat sheet for whoever at NBC is in charge of flex scheduling.
| Week | Game | Leverage |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | PHI @ DAL | 43.2% |
| 15 | GB @ DAL | 39.9% |
| 14 | DET @ PHI | 38.6% |
| 16 | CHI @ PHI | 37.6% |
| 12 | CAR @ MIA | 36.3% |
| 14 | DAL @ CHI | 35.6% |
| 17 | GB @ CHI | 33.1% |
| 11 | IND @ TEN | 32.0% |
| 13 | GB @ DET | 32.0% |
| 15 | NYJ @ CAR | 31.7% |
The NFC East and NFC North are wide open right now, so it's not too surprising that 3 of the top 4 games feature matchups between those two divisions.
According to the table, Carolina-Miami has the highest leverage of the week 12 games, but there's virtually no chance that game is getting flexed as the default Sunday Night matchup that week is Broncos-Patriots. It's a low playoff leverage game, but potentially high leverage in the context of Superbowl probability, given its implications for seeding.
Week 10 Cheat Sheet
And here is your cheat sheet for week 10. You can filter by game or team below. As mentioned above, I have already weeded out any games that aren't statistically significant to a team's playoff chances.
| Select Game: | <-or-> | Select Team: |
| home team: | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| game | game prob | team | playoff prob | loses | wins | swing | leverage |
| DET @ CHI | 46.1% | CHI | 36.1% | 21.5% | 53.1% | 31.5% | 15.7% |
| DET @ CHI | 46.1% | DET | 60.9% | 74.8% | 44.5% | -30.3% | 15.1% |
| CAR @ SF | 70.9% | CAR | 46.9% | 69.1% | 37.9% | -31.2% | 14.2% |
| PHI @ GB | 53.4% | GB | 55.7% | 41.8% | 67.9% | 26.1% | 13.0% |
| PHI @ GB | 53.4% | PHI | 30.4% | 42.4% | 19.9% | -22.5% | 11.2% |
| JAC @ TEN | 84.7% | TEN | 43.8% | 21.5% | 47.8% | 26.2% | 9.4% |
| MIA @ TB | 41.3% | MIA | 26.5% | 34.2% | 15.7% | -18.5% | 9.1% |
| CIN @ BAL | 44.9% | BAL | 10.2% | 3.5% | 18.5% | 15.0% | 7.4% |
| DAL @ NO | 71.9% | DAL | 68.2% | 79.4% | 63.8% | -15.6% | 7.0% |
| CAR @ SF | 70.9% | SF | 92.2% | 81.9% | 96.4% | 14.5% | 6.6% |
| CIN @ BAL | 44.9% | CIN | 90.4% | 96.2% | 83.3% | -12.9% | 6.4% |
| DEN @ SD | 26.7% | SD | 12.4% | 8.6% | 22.8% | 14.2% | 6.3% |
| PHI @ GB | 53.4% | DAL | 68.2% | 61.9% | 73.7% | 11.7% | 5.9% |
| DAL @ NO | 71.9% | NO | 92.7% | 85.3% | 95.5% | 10.2% | 4.6% |
| TEX @ ARZ | 59.2% | ARZ | 9.5% | 4.3% | 13.0% | 8.7% | 4.3% |
| STL @ IND | 80.2% | IND | 89.7% | 82.2% | 91.6% | 9.4% | 3.7% |
| DAL @ NO | 71.9% | PHI | 30.4% | 24.8% | 32.6% | 7.8% | 3.5% |
| MIA @ TB | 41.3% | TEN | 43.8% | 41.4% | 47.0% | 5.6% | 2.8% |
| TEX @ ARZ | 59.2% | CAR | 46.9% | 50.2% | 44.7% | -5.4% | 2.7% |
| PHI @ GB | 53.4% | CHI | 36.1% | 38.9% | 33.6% | -5.3% | 2.7% |
| PHI @ GB | 53.4% | DET | 60.9% | 63.4% | 58.7% | -4.7% | 2.3% |
| JAC @ TEN | 84.7% | MIA | 26.5% | 31.7% | 25.6% | -6.1% | 2.2% |
| PHI @ GB | 53.4% | CAR | 46.9% | 49.0% | 45.1% | -3.9% | 2.0% |
| CAR @ SF | 70.9% | DET | 60.9% | 57.8% | 62.1% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| JAC @ TEN | 84.7% | SD | 12.4% | 16.8% | 11.6% | -5.1% | 1.8% |
| TEX @ ARZ | 59.2% | TEX | 2.3% | 4.6% | 0.8% | -3.7% | 1.8% |
| CAR @ SF | 70.9% | GB | 55.7% | 52.9% | 56.9% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| CAR @ SF | 70.9% | CHI | 36.1% | 33.5% | 37.1% | 3.7% | 1.7% |
| JAC @ TEN | 84.7% | IND | 89.7% | 93.6% | 89.0% | -4.6% | 1.7% |
| DEN @ SD | 26.7% | MIA | 26.5% | 27.5% | 23.9% | -3.6% | 1.6% |
| DAL @ NO | 71.9% | CAR | 46.9% | 49.1% | 46.1% | -3.0% | 1.4% |
| RAI @ NYG | 72.8% | NYG | 3.2% | 1.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| MIA @ TB | 41.3% | NYJ | 14.9% | 13.9% | 16.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
| MIA @ TB | 41.3% | BAL | 10.2% | 9.2% | 11.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| CIN @ BAL | 44.9% | CAR | 46.9% | 45.9% | 48.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% |
| JAC @ TEN | 84.7% | CAR | 46.9% | 44.1% | 47.4% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| BUF @ PIT | 60.8% | BUF | 1.3% | 2.8% | 0.4% | -2.3% | 1.1% |
| TEX @ ARZ | 59.2% | CHI | 36.1% | 37.4% | 35.1% | -2.3% | 1.1% |
| RAI @ NYG | 72.8% | PHI | 30.4% | 32.2% | 29.7% | -2.5% | 1.1% |
| CIN @ BAL | 44.9% | NYJ | 14.9% | 15.9% | 13.7% | -2.2% | 1.1% |
| JAC @ TEN | 84.7% | BAL | 10.2% | 12.8% | 9.7% | -3.1% | 1.1% |
| DEN @ SD | 26.7% | TEN | 43.8% | 44.4% | 41.9% | -2.5% | 1.1% |
| PHI @ GB | 53.4% | SF | 92.2% | 93.4% | 91.2% | -2.2% | 1.1% |
| STL @ IND | 80.2% | MIA | 26.5% | 28.6% | 26.0% | -2.6% | 1.0% |
| DET @ CHI | 46.1% | GB | 55.7% | 56.7% | 54.6% | -2.1% | 1.0% |
| DAL @ NO | 71.9% | WAS | 4.5% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| CIN @ BAL | 44.9% | CHI | 36.1% | 36.9% | 35.0% | -2.0% | 1.0% |
| JAC @ TEN | 84.7% | NYJ | 14.9% | 17.2% | 14.5% | -2.7% | 1.0% |
| DEN @ SD | 26.7% | NYJ | 14.9% | 15.5% | 13.3% | -2.2% | 1.0% |
| CIN @ BAL | 44.9% | CLE | 11.0% | 10.1% | 12.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| RAI @ NYG | 72.8% | NYJ | 14.9% | 13.4% | 15.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| DEN @ SD | 26.7% | BAL | 10.2% | 10.8% | 8.7% | -2.1% | 0.9% |
| MIA @ TB | 41.3% | NE | 96.0% | 95.2% | 97.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| MIA @ TB | 41.3% | IND | 89.7% | 89.0% | 90.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% |
| JAC @ TEN | 84.7% | CLE | 11.0% | 13.0% | 10.6% | -2.4% | 0.9% |
| TEX @ ARZ | 59.2% | CIN | 90.4% | 91.5% | 89.7% | -1.7% | 0.8% |
| PHI @ GB | 53.4% | NYG | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| BUF @ PIT | 60.8% | PIT | 1.4% | 0.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| DET @ CHI | 46.1% | NO | 92.7% | 91.9% | 93.5% | 1.5% | 0.8% |
| DEN @ SD | 26.7% | IND | 89.7% | 90.2% | 88.5% | -1.7% | 0.7% |
| CAR @ SF | 70.9% | ARZ | 9.5% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| PHI @ GB | 53.4% | WAS | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| TEX @ ARZ | 59.2% | BAL | 10.2% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| MIA @ TB | 41.3% | SD | 12.4% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% |
| PHI @ GB | 53.4% | NO | 92.7% | 93.4% | 92.0% | -1.3% | 0.7% |
| BUF @ PIT | 60.8% | SF | 92.2% | 93.0% | 91.7% | -1.4% | 0.7% |
| MIA @ TB | 41.3% | CIN | 90.4% | 89.9% | 91.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| JAC @ TEN | 84.7% | NE | 96.0% | 97.4% | 95.7% | -1.7% | 0.6% |
| STL @ IND | 80.2% | TEX | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.0% | -1.5% | 0.6% |
| TEX @ ARZ | 59.2% | SF | 92.2% | 92.9% | 91.7% | -1.2% | 0.6% |
| CIN @ BAL | 44.9% | WAS | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.8% | -1.2% | 0.6% |
| DAL @ NO | 71.9% | NYG | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| TEX @ ARZ | 59.2% | NE | 96.0% | 96.6% | 95.6% | -1.0% | 0.5% |
| RAI @ NYG | 72.8% | RAI | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | -1.1% | 0.5% |
| SEA @ ATL | 30.2% | SEA | 99.6% | 99.9% | 98.9% | -0.9% | 0.4% |
| DEN @ SD | 26.7% | DEN | 99.6% | 99.9% | 99.0% | -0.9% | 0.4% |
| CIN @ BAL | 44.9% | PIT | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| STL @ IND | 80.2% | PIT | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | -0.7% | 0.3% |
| TEX @ ARZ | 59.2% | PIT | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| SEA @ ATL | 30.2% | ATL | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| TEX @ ARZ | 59.2% | SEA | 99.6% | 99.8% | 99.5% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| BUF @ PIT | 60.8% | ATL | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| JAC @ TEN | 84.7% | STL | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.0% |
Other Takes
Advanced NFL Stats publishes playoff projections each week, using their efficiency model and Chris Cox's NFL Forecast Tool.
This past week, I also stumbled upon a very cool site that in many ways is a far more robust version of what I'm attempting to do in this post. Check out Sports Club Stats playoff projections (warning: for the stat-minded, that site can be a time vampire, threat level: tvtropes.org).
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