Turnover Index - Week 9
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 9. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalues defensive turnovers when judging team strength. See here and here for more background.
Week 8 results
Week 8 picks went 1-2 against the spread. Fortunately, the one successful bet was with the highest stake, so the overall loss to the bankroll was minimal. Here are the season to date results:
- Against the Spread: 5-4
- Starting Bankroll: $1,000
- Current Bankroll: $867 (-13% ROI)
Here is the week by week performance:
| week | bets | won | starting bankroll | amount bet | profits | ending bankroll |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | 0 | $1,000 | $268 (26.8%) | ($268) | $731 |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | $731 | $32 (4.5%) | $29 | $761 |
| 7 | 3 | 3 | $761 | $130 (17.1%) | $118 | $879 |
| 8 | 3 | 1 | $879 | $70 (8.1%) | ($12) | $867 |
Week 9 Picks
There are seven recommended bets against the spread this week. The table below shows the turnover differential, probability of covering, and the recommended fraction of bankroll to bet, according to the Kelly Criterion. We're betting 19.2% of our $867 bankroll this week.
| turnovers | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| game | away | home | diff | per game | pick | prob | bet | |
| Bears @ Packers | 18 | 7 | -11 | -1.6 | Packers | 54.4% | 4.3% | |
| Colts @ Texans | 13 | 5 | -8 | -1.1 | Texans | 53.2% | 1.8% | |
| Falcons @ Panthers | 6 | 15 | 9 | 1.3 | Falcons | 53.6% | 2.6% | |
| Steelers @ Patriots | 5 | 16 | 11 | 1.3 | Steelers | 53.6% | 2.6% | |
| Chargers @ Redskins | 4 | 12 | 8 | 1.1 | Chargers | 53.2% | 1.8% | |
| Saints @ Jets | 15 | 5 | -10 | -1.5 | Jets | 54.3% | 3.9% | |
| Buccaneers @ Seahawks | 10 | 21 | 11 | 1.2 | Buccaneers | 53.4% | 2.1% | |
The "Old" Index
Under last season's simpler betting approach (bet any game with at least a 10 turnover differential), season to date results for 2013 are 3-2 against the spread.
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