Here is the win probability graph for
Rafael Nadal's four set victory over
Novak Djokovic in the US Open Mens Final (pretty much identical to the
live version). See Jeff Sackmann's recap for a
detailed breakdown of the match. I don't have much to add, other than to point out that the Mens Final and
Womens Final had nearly equivalent numbers for the Excitement Index and Comeback Factor.
| Novak Djokovic | 2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | | Excitement | 4.3 |
| Rafael Nadal | 6 | 3 | 6 | 6 | | Comeback | 0.6 |
| Point Probabilities (Model Inputs) |
| Player | Serve | Return |
| Djokovic | 0.619 | 0.369 |
| Nadal | 0.631 | 0.381 |
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