NBA Finals Game 6 - Win Probability Graph
Here is the win probability graph for Game 6. Ho hum. If Ray Allen doesn't knock down that three to force overtime, the "top" play of the game is Lebron's turnover with 0:39 left.
The comeback factor of 66 in this game means that, at the Heat's nadir (down by 4, Spurs ball, 0:28 on the clock), their odds of winning the game were 66 to 1. More background here and here.
The comeback factor of 66 in this game means that, at the Heat's nadir (down by 4, Spurs ball, 0:28 on the clock), their odds of winning the game were 66 to 1. More background here and here.
| San Antonio Spurs | 100 | Excitement | 8.9 | |
| Miami Heat | 103 | Comeback | 66 |
| TOP PLAYS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prior State | Play | End State | Before | Change | After |
| Q4 | 0:06 | SAS:95 MIA:92 | Poss:MIA | Ray Allen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chris Bosh assists) | Q4 | 0:05 | SAS:95 MIA:95 | Poss:SAS | 6.1% | +39.8% | 45.9% |
| Q4 | 0:58 | SAS:91 MIA:89 | Poss:MIA | LeBron James lost ball turnover (Kawhi Leonard steals) | Q4 | 0:39 | SAS:91 MIA:89 | Poss:SAS | 36.8% | -19.4% | 17.4% |
| Q5 | 0:08 | SAS:100 MIA:101 | Poss:SAS | Manu Ginobili lost ball turnover (Ray Allen steals) | Q5 | 0:02 | SAS:100 MIA:101 | Poss:MIA | 73.3% | +18.8% | 92.1% |
| Q4 | 1:07 | SAS:89 MIA:89 | Poss:SAS | Tony Parker makes 12-foot two point shot | Q4 | 0:58 | SAS:91 MIA:89 | Poss:MIA | 55.1% | -18.3% | 36.8% |
| Q4 | 0:05 | SAS:95 MIA:95 | Poss:SAS | End of 4th Quarter | Q5 | 12:00 | SAS:95 MIA:95 | Poss: | 45.9% | +17.8% | 63.7% |
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