Chris Bosh single handedly beats the Trailblazers (so to speak)
December 29, 2013
NBA Win Probability graphs have been updated with games through last night (December 28). With that update, Chris Bosh amassed the larges...
NBA Win Probability Graphs and Box Scores
December 28, 2013
Box Score from Wilt Chamberlain's 100 Point game I'm excited to announce a new feature to this site: NBA Win Probability Graphs ...
Playoff Implications - Week 16
December 21, 2013
Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a bi...
Turnover Index - Week 16
December 21, 2013
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 16. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalu...
Playoff Implications - Week 15
December 15, 2013
Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a bi...
Turnover Index - Week 15
December 14, 2013
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 15. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalu...
Playoff Implications - Week 14
December 07, 2013
HereHere is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a...
NBA Rankings Now Available
December 07, 2013
NBA team rankings for the 2013-2014 season are now available (they've been available for a few weeks now, but I've been trying to...
Turnover Index - Week 14
December 04, 2013
There are no Turnover Index picks for Week 14 (no games meet the minimum criteria), but here are the results for Week 13. The Turnover Index...
Michigan Plays for the Win
November 30, 2013
Michigan nearly pulled off an upset with huge BCS implications this afternoon, falling just short against the Buckeyes . The Wolverines had ...
Playoff Implications - Week 13
November 27, 2013
Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a bi...
Turnover Index - Week 13
November 27, 2013
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 13. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalu...
Playoff Implications - Week 12
November 23, 2013
Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a bi...
Turnover Index - Week 12
November 20, 2013
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 12. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overva...
Underdogs Shouldn't Play for Overtime
November 17, 2013
In week 9 of the NFL season, the Buccaneers nearly pulled off an historic upset playing on the road against the heavily favored Seahawk...
NBA Win Probability Calculator
November 17, 2013
This past summer, I rolled out my initial attempt at a win probability model for the NBA ( introductory post | the insanity that was Game 6...
Playoff Implications - Week 11
November 16, 2013
Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a b...
Turnover Index - Week 11
November 13, 2013
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 11. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalu...
Playoff Implications - Week 10
November 09, 2013
Here is your weekly cheat sheet for NFL games with playoff implications. The purpose of this feature is to highlight games that have a b...
Could a playoff seed ever be determined by a coin flip?
November 08, 2013
Warning: Pointlessness ahead. In order to produce my playoff seed projections for the NFL, I had to do some rather tedious coding of t...
Turnover Index - Week 10
November 06, 2013
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 10. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalu...
Playoff Leverage - Week 9
November 03, 2013
Earlier this week, I added playoff seed projections to my daily NFL rankings , which are based on simulating the remainder of the seaso...
Turnover Index - Week 9
October 30, 2013
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 9. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalu...
NFL Playoff Seed Probabilities
October 27, 2013
Because it's never too soon to start talking playoffs . The latest version of my NFL ranking table features some odd looking multi-co...
Turnover Index - Week 8
October 23, 2013
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 8. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overvalu...
Turnover Index - Week 7
October 18, 2013
Here are the Turnover Index picks for Week 7. The Turnover Index is a simple betting strategy based on the theory that the market overval...
Early Season Power Rankings - Follow Up
October 18, 2013
This is a follow up to last week's post on early season power rankings . In that post, I attempted to measure the accuracy of various...
The Turnover Index (possibly overfit edition)
October 12, 2013
The Turnover Index makes a belated return this season, with some additional tweaks and enhancements. The Turnover Index is a simple bet...
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- Michigan Plays for the Win
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- Underdogs Shouldn't Play for Overtime
- NBA Win Probability Calculator
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2/3/2013 Update: A more mobile friendly version of the chart: Squares Payouts . My most recent two posts covered the concept of in-game ... -
This post has been in the works for several months now, and is the result of a deep dive into the NBA's SportVU motion tracking data . ... -
In this post I will lay out an approach for measuring clutch play in the NBA, using my win probability model as the underlying framewor...
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