The Turnover Index - Week 10
Here are the Turnover Index numbers for Week 10 of the NFL season. The purpose of these weekly posts is to find betting opportunities by exploiting the market's tendency to overvalue a team's season to date defensive turnovers when evaluating future performance. See here and here for more background.
The Bears - 28 Turnovers in 8 Games
Before getting to the Week 10 numbers, I wanted to take a look at the Bears and their impressive turnover performance thus far this season. In their first 8 games, the Bears have generated (received?) 28 defensive turnovers. Going back to 1998, only the 2005 Bengals managed more turnovers (29) in the same amount of time. See the table below for the outcomes for all teams that managed at least 24 defensive turnovers in their first 8 games:| Turnovers | Win-Loss | At the Spread (ATS) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Gms 1-8 | Gms 9-16 | Gms 1-8 | Gms 9-16 | Gms 1-8 | Gms 9-16 |
| 2005 Bengals | 29 | 15 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-3-1 | 4-4-0 |
| 2012 Bears | 28 | ??? | 7-1 | ??? | 5-2-1 | ??? |
| 2002 Packers | 27 | 18 | 7-1 | 5-3 | 4-4-0 | 4-4-0 |
| 2003 Chiefs | 27 | 10 | 8-0 | 5-3 | 7-1-0 | 3-5-0 |
| 2000 Lions | 26 | 16 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 5-3-0 | 4-4-0 |
| 1998 Cardinals | 25 | 14 | 4-4 | 5-3 | 4-4-0 | 1-6-1 |
| 2000 Ravens | 25 | 24 | 5-3 | 7-1 | 5-3-0 | 6-2-0 |
| 2006 Ravens | 25 | 17 | 6-2 | 7-1 | 5-3-0 | 5-3-0 |
| 1999 Seahawks | 24 | 12 | 6-2 | 3-5 | 4-4-0 | 2-6-0 |
| 2001 Jets | 24 | 15 | 5-3 | 5-3 | 4-4-0 | 4-4-0 |
| 2005 Giants | 24 | 13 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 6-2-0 | 5-3-0 |
| 2006 Bears | 24 | 28 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3-0 | 4-2-2 |
| 2007 Lions | 24 | 11 | 6-2 | 1-7 | 5-2-1 | 1-6-1 |
| 2009 Saints | 24 | 23 | 8-0 | 5-3 | 6-2-0 | 2-6-0 |
| Total | 25.1 | 15.4 | 79-25 | 63-41 | 64-38-2 | 45-55-4 |
The first thing to notice are the average defensive turnovers for the second half of the season. As expected, there is significant regression to the mean. Teams average about 1.6 turnovers per game, so one would expect about 13 turnovers over an 8 game span, on average.
Also note the performance against the spread. As expected, these teams did very well against the spread in the first half of the season, but that performance flips for the second half of the season. This is consistent with what I found in my original post on turnover differential: the betting market tends to over-correct for what is (mostly) un-repeatable turnover performance.
Week 9 Results
So, how did the Turnover Index do in Week 9? It correctly picked Pittsburgh to cover the spread against the Giants, but missed (badly) on the Bears-Titans game, where it expected the Titans to cover.
Turnover Index Through Week 9 (ATS): 5-3-0
Here is the complete list:
Turnover Index Through Week 9 (ATS): 5-3-0
Week 10 Picks
- NY Giants @ Cincinnati - Cincinatti has had 15 fewer defensive turnovers than the Giants, so we would expect Cincinnati to cover as a four point home underdog
- Houston @ Chicago - I have a feeling that the Bears and Giants are going to be weekly fixtures here until they start regressing to the mean. The Texans have had 14 fewer defensive turnovers than the Bears, so we would expect the Texans to cover.
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