NBA Team Rankings - March 24, 2012
 |
| Knicks' coach Mike Woodson |
The Heat have extended their lead atop the rankings to a full three points. The Knicks, despite having the 20th best record in the league, are ranked #5, nearly even with the Spurs.
The Rankings
| Rank | Team | LstWk | GPF | oGPF | dGPF | GOU | W-L | GWP | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIA | 1 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 6 | 4.5 | 2 | 195 | 14 | 33-11 | 2 | 0.79 |
| 2 |  CHI | 2 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 10 | 4.5 | 3 | 192 | 18 | 37-10 | 1 | 0.72 |
| 3 |  OKC | 3 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 1 | -0.5 | 16 | 202 | 6 | 33-11 | 3 | 0.70 |
| 4 |  SAS | 4 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 2 | -1.5 | 20 | 202 | 5 | 29-14 | 4 | 0.66 |
| 5 |  NYK | 7 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 | 17 | 201 | 7 | 21-24 | 20 | 0.64 |
| 6 |  PHI | 5 | 3.5 | -2.5 | 23 | 6.0 | 1 | 187 | 29 | 25-20 | 12 | 0.64 |
| 7 |  LAL | 6 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 16 | 4.0 | 7 | 191 | 24 | 28-17 | 6 | 0.63 |
| 8 |  ORL | 8 | 2.5 | -1.5 | 21 | 4.0 | 4 | 189 | 26 | 29-17 | 5 | 0.60 |
| 9 |  IND | 9 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 15 | 2.5 | 11 | 193 | 16 | 25-18 | 9 | 0.59 |
| 10 |  LAC | 10 | 2.0 | -1.0 | 19 | 3.0 | 8 | 191 | 23 | 26-18 | 7 | 0.58 |
| 11 |  DEN | 11 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 3 | -3.5 | 27 | 204 | 2 | 25-20 | 13 | 0.56 |
| 12 |  MEM | 12 | 1.5 | -1.0 | 20 | 2.5 | 10 | 192 | 20 | 25-18 | 8 | 0.55 |
| 13 |  DAL | 13 | 1.0 | -1.5 | 22 | 2.5 | 9 | 191 | 25 | 26-20 | 11 | 0.54 |
| 14 |  MIL | 17 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 5 | -3.5 | 28 | 204 | 3 | 20-24 | 21 | 0.54 |
| 15 |  BOS | 14 | 0.5 | -3.5 | 26 | 4.0 | 5 | 188 | 28 | 23-21 | 15 | 0.53 |
| 16 |  ATL | 16 | 0.5 | -3.0 | 24 | 3.5 | 6 | 188 | 27 | 26-19 | 10 | 0.53 |
| 17 |  POR | 15 | 0.5 | -1.0 | 18 | 1.5 | 13 | 193 | 17 | 21-23 | 19 | 0.52 |
| 18 |  UTA | 18 | -0.5 | 1.0 | 11 | -1.5 | 18 | 197 | 11 | 23-22 | 16 | 0.48 |
| 19 |  PHX | 20 | -0.5 | 2.0 | 9 | -2.5 | 23 | 199 | 9 | 22-22 | 17 | 0.47 |
| 20 |  MIN | 19 | -1.0 | 2.0 | 8 | -3.0 | 25 | 200 | 8 | 22-24 | 18 | 0.46 |
| 21 |  HOU | 21 | -1.0 | 0.0 | 14 | -1.0 | 19 | 197 | 13 | 24-21 | 14 | 0.45 |
| 22 |  GSW | 22 | -3.0 | 0.5 | 12 | -3.5 | 26 | 199 | 10 | 18-24 | 22 | 0.39 |
| 23 |  DET | 23 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 25 | 0.0 | 14 | 192 | 19 | 16-29 | 24 | 0.38 |
| 24 |  SAC | 25 | -4.0 | 2.5 | 7 | -6.5 | 29 | 204 | 1 | 16-29 | 25 | 0.36 |
| 25 |  CLE | 24 | -4.0 | -1.0 | 17 | -3.0 | 24 | 197 | 12 | 16-26 | 23 | 0.36 |
| 26 |  TOR | 26 | -4.5 | -4.0 | 28 | -0.5 | 15 | 191 | 21 | 15-30 | 26 | 0.34 |
| 27 |  NOH | 28 | -6.0 | -7.5 | 30 | 1.5 | 12 | 186 | 30 | 11-1 | 28 | 0.29 |
| 28 |  NJN | 27 | -6.0 | -4.0 | 27 | -2.0 | 21 | 193 | 15 | 15-31 | 27 | 0.28 |
| 29 |  WAS | 29 | -7.0 | 0.5 | 13 | -7.5 | 30 | 203 | 4 | 10-1 | 29 | 0.26 |
| 30 |  CHA | 30 | -9.0 | -6.5 | 29 | -2.5 | 22 | 191 | 22 | 7-1 | 30 | 0.21 |
GLOSSARY
LstWk - The BTM ranking from last week.
GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored". It's what you would expect the team to be favored by against a league average opponent at a neutral site.
oGPF - Stands for "Offensive Generic Points Favored". The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to score points (per game).
dGPF - Stands for "Defensive Generic Points Favored". The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to prevent the other team from scoring points (per game).
GOU - Stands for "Generic Over/Under". It's what you would expect the betting over/under to be for the given team when playing a league average opponent.
W-L - The team's win/loss record (and win percentage rank)
GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability". I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: 1/(1 + exp(-GPF/6.5)).
Additional Key Factors:
Additional Key Factors:
- League Average Points Scored (APS): 97.5 points
- Home Court Advantage (HCA): 3.25 points
- Back to Back Penalty (B2B): -0.75 points (see here)
How to Use This Table to Build Point Spreads and Over/Unders
- Point Spread (in favor of home team) = HCA + (B2Bhome - B2Baway) + (GPFhome - GPFaway)
- Over/Under = 2*APS + (oGPFhome + oGPFaway - dGPFhome - dGPFaway)
Leave a Comment