College Basketball Team Rankings - March 12, 2012
Tournament Edition
I have included the top 64 teams (according to these rankings), plus any team that made the NCAA tournament. (ETA on March 14 - Check here for a post on tournament brackets)
The Snubs
At #29, UCLA was the biggest "snub", but if you look down the list, the top 3 "snubs" are all Pac-12 teams, which leads me to believe that these rankings may have just overvalued the Pac-12. I still think the truth lies somewhere in the middle, and wouldn't be suprised if Cal (one of only two Pac-12 teams in the tournament) found itself in the Sweet Sixteen.
The Betting Market Bracket
I went ahead and filled out a bracket based on the rankings below. You can find it here. Unfortunately, it's a fairly boring bracket, with few "seed" upsets predicted. Time permitting, I plan on providing a "riskier" bracket that targets optimal upsets (e.g. if the expected line is less than 2 points, pick the lower seeded team, even if they are the underdog).
The Rankings (glossary below)
| Other Rankings | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | Seed | LstWk | GPF | Conf | SOS | GWP | KP | AP | Coach | ||
| 1 | Kentucky | 1 | 1 | 19.0 | SEC | 1 | 4.0 | 55 | 0.96 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Ohio St. | 2 | 3 | 18.0 | B10 | 1 | 7.0 | 5 | 0.95 | 2 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | Kansas | 2 | 4 | 17.5 | B12 | 1 | 6.0 | 19 | 0.95 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 4 | Michigan St. | 1 | 5 | 17.0 | B10 | 2 | 6.5 | 6 | 0.95 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 5 | Syracuse | 1 | 6 | 16.5 | BE | 1 | 4.0 | 52 | 0.94 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
| 6 | North Carolina | 1 | 2 | 16.0 | ACC | 1 | 4.0 | 57 | 0.93 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 7 | Missouri | 2 | 7 | 15.5 | B12 | 2 | 5.0 | 44 | 0.93 | 8 | 3 | 3 |
| 8 | Wisconsin | 4 | 8 | 14.0 | B10 | 3 | 6.0 | 18 | 0.91 | 6 | 14 | 13 |
| 9 | Wichita St. | 5 | 9 | 13.0 | MVC | 1 | 2.0 | 89 | 0.90 | 10 | 18 | 19 |
| 10 | Marquette | 3 | 12 | 12.5 | BE | 2 | 5.5 | 36 | 0.89 | 18 | 11 | 11 |
| 11 | Memphis | 8 | 16 | 12.5 | CUSA | 1 | 3.0 | 66 | 0.89 | 9 | ||
| 12 | Florida | 7 | 23 | 12.5 | SEC | 2 | 6.5 | 14 | 0.89 | 19 | 25 | 21 |
| 13 | Baylor | 3 | 24 | 12.5 | B12 | 3 | 8.0 | 1 | 0.89 | 14 | 9 | 10 |
| 14 | Georgetown | 3 | 20 | 12.0 | BE | 3 | 6.5 | 12 | 0.88 | 12 | 15 | 15 |
| 15 | Vanderbilt | 5 | 13 | 12.0 | SEC | 3 | 6.5 | 13 | 0.88 | 16 | 20 | 24 |
| 16 | Duke | 2 | 15 | 12.0 | ACC | 2 | 5.0 | 38 | 0.88 | 17 | 8 | 8 |
| 17 | Louisville | 4 | 11 | 12.0 | BE | 4 | 6.5 | 10 | 0.88 | 20 | 17 | 18 |
| 18 | New Mexico | 5 | 19 | 11.5 | MWC | 1 | 1.0 | 110 | 0.87 | 13 | 21 | 22 |
| 19 | Indiana | 4 | 18 | 11.5 | B10 | 4 | 6.5 | 7 | 0.87 | 11 | 16 | 17 |
| 20 | Michigan | 4 | 22 | 10.5 | B10 | 5 | 7.0 | 3 | 0.85 | 25 | 13 | 14 |
| 21 | Purdue | 10 | 31 | 10.0 | B10 | 6 | 6.0 | 21 | 0.84 | 24 | ||
| 22 | UNLV | 6 | 21 | 10.0 | MWC | 2 | 2.0 | 94 | 0.84 | 33 | 23 | 25 |
| 23 | Florida St. | 3 | 27 | 10.0 | ACC | 3 | 5.0 | 39 | 0.84 | 21 | 10 | 12 |
| 24 | Kansas St. | 8 | 14 | 10.0 | B12 | 4 | 5.5 | 28 | 0.84 | 22 | ||
| 25 | Iowa St. | 8 | 39 | 10.0 | B12 | 5 | 5.0 | 43 | 0.84 | 30 | ||
| 26 | Gonzaga | 7 | 10 | 9.5 | WCC | 1 | 1.5 | 109 | 0.83 | 32 | ||
| 27 | West Virginia | 10 | 32 | 9.5 | BE | 5 | 6.0 | 23 | 0.83 | 42 | ||
| 28 | Cincinnati | 6 | 28 | 9.5 | BE | 6 | 5.5 | 26 | 0.83 | 31 | ||
| 29 | UCLA | 33 | 9.5 | P12 | 1 | 2.0 | 84 | 0.83 | 48 | |||
| 30 | California | 12 | 17 | 9.5 | P12 | 2 | 2.5 | 74 | 0.82 | 28 | ||
| 31 | St. Mary's | 7 | 29 | 9.0 | WCC | 2 | 0.5 | 125 | 0.82 | 43 | 24 | 16 |
| 32 | Saint Louis | 9 | 30 | 9.0 | A10 | 1 | 2.0 | 93 | 0.82 | 15 | ||
| 33 | Virginia | 10 | 25 | 9.0 | ACC | 4 | 4.5 | 45 | 0.81 | 26 | ||
| 34 | Alabama | 9 | 37 | 8.5 | SEC | 4 | 5.5 | 34 | 0.81 | 29 | ||
| 35 | Belmont | 14 | 8.5 | ASun | 1 | 5.0 | 40 | 0.81 | 23 | |||
| 36 | Washington | 42 | 8.5 | P12 | 3 | 3.0 | 68 | 0.80 | 67 | |||
| 37 | North Carolina St. | 11 | 48 | 8.5 | ACC | 5 | 4.0 | 56 | 0.80 | 44 | ||
| 38 | BYU | 14 | 38 | 8.0 | WCC | 3 | 0.5 | 123 | 0.80 | 50 | ||
| 39 | Connecticut | 9 | 34 | 8.0 | BE | 7 | 6.5 | 11 | 0.79 | 35 | ||
| 40 | Temple | 5 | 35 | 8.0 | A10 | 2 | 1.5 | 103 | 0.78 | 36 | ||
| 41 | Notre Dame | 7 | 43 | 7.5 | BE | 8 | 6.5 | 9 | 0.78 | 40 | ||
| 42 | Texas | 11 | 26 | 7.5 | B12 | 6 | 7.0 | 4 | 0.78 | 27 | ||
| 43 | Arizona | 40 | 7.5 | P12 | 4 | 3.0 | 72 | 0.78 | 49 | |||
| 44 | Long Beach St. | 12 | 41 | 7.5 | BW | 1 | 0.0 | 130 | 0.78 | 37 | ||
| 45 | Seton Hall | 58 | 7.5 | BE | 9 | 5.0 | 42 | 0.77 | 47 | |||
| 46 | Illinois | 47 | 7.0 | B10 | 7 | 6.0 | 16 | 0.77 | 69 | |||
| 47 | Creighton | 8 | 36 | 7.0 | MVC | 2 | 2.5 | 81 | 0.77 | 34 | 19 | 20 |
| 48 | South Florida | 12 | 59 | 7.0 | BE | 10 | 4.5 | 46 | 0.76 | 66 | ||
| 49 | Clemson | 55 | 6.5 | ACC | 6 | 2.0 | 83 | 0.75 | 70 | |||
| 50 | VA Commonwealth | 12 | 44 | 6.5 | CAA | 1 | -1.5 | 164 | 0.75 | 46 | ||
| 51 | Oregon | 53 | 6.5 | P12 | 5 | 3.0 | 71 | 0.75 | 62 | |||
| 52 | Tennessee | 56 | 6.5 | SEC | 5 | 3.5 | 65 | 0.75 | 60 | |||
| 53 | San Diego St. | 6 | 51 | 6.5 | MWC | 3 | 2.5 | 73 | 0.74 | 52 | 22 | 23 |
| 54 | Murray St. | 6 | 65 | 6.5 | OVC | 1 | -4.5 | 252 | 0.74 | 45 | 12 | 9 |
| 55 | Northwestern | 46 | 6.0 | B10 | 8 | 6.5 | 8 | 0.74 | 58 | |||
| 56 | Iona | 14 | 54 | 6.0 | MAAC | 1 | -3.0 | 230 | 0.74 | 57 | ||
| 57 | Harvard | 12 | 52 | 6.0 | Ivy | 1 | -2.5 | 197 | 0.73 | 39 | ||
| 58 | Pittsburgh | 49 | 6.0 | BE | 11 | 5.5 | 29 | 0.73 | 77 | |||
| 59 | Miami Florida | 60 | 6.0 | ACC | 7 | 3.5 | 64 | 0.73 | 38 | |||
| 60 | St. Joseph's PA | 69 | 5.5 | A10 | 3 | 2.0 | 88 | 0.72 | 65 | |||
| 61 | Colorado | 11 | 73 | 5.5 | P12 | 6 | 3.5 | 60 | 0.72 | 75 | ||
| 62 | Mississippi St. | 50 | 5.5 | SEC | 6 | 2.0 | 86 | 0.71 | 85 | |||
| 63 | Stanford | 57 | 5.5 | P12 | 7 | 2.5 | 76 | 0.71 | 53 | |||
| 64 | New Mexico St. | 13 | 68 | 5.5 | WAC | 1 | 0.0 | 138 | 0.71 | 63 | ||
| 68 | Xavier | 10 | 63 | 5.0 | A10 | 4 | 4.0 | 58 | 0.70 | 59 | ||
| 69 | South Dakota St. | 14 | 75 | 5.0 | Sum | 1 | -2.0 | 177 | 0.69 | 55 | ||
| 70 | Montana | 13 | 89 | 4.5 | BSky | 1 | -4.0 | 243 | 0.68 | 94 | ||
| 71 | Southern Miss | 9 | 72 | 4.5 | CUSA | 2 | 1.5 | 101 | 0.68 | 71 | ||
| 72 | Ohio | 13 | 70 | 4.5 | MAC | 2 | -1.5 | 165 | 0.67 | 72 | ||
| 73 | Davidson | 13 | 66 | 4.5 | SC | 1 | -3.5 | 238 | 0.67 | 68 | ||
| 87 | St. Bonaventure | 14 | 74 | 3.5 | A10 | 7 | 0.5 | 122 | 0.64 | 51 | ||
| 98 | Colorado St. | 11 | 82 | 3.0 | MWC | 5 | 3.0 | 69 | 0.61 | 76 | ||
| 104 | Detroit | 15 | 109 | 2.5 | Horz | 3 | -0.5 | 148 | 0.59 | 115 | ||
| 124 | Loyola Maryland | 15 | 128 | 0.5 | MAAC | 3 | -3.0 | 221 | 0.53 | 128 | ||
| 137 | Lamar | 16 | -0.5 | Slnd | 3 | -100.0 | 282 | 0.49 | 102 | |||
| 140 | NC Asheville | 16 | 148 | -0.5 | BSth | 1 | 3.5 | 63 | 0.48 | 121 | ||
| 141 | Lehigh | 15 | 115 | -0.5 | Pat | 2 | 1.0 | 116 | 0.47 | 86 | ||
| 185 | Western Kentucky | 16 | 172 | -4.0 | SB | 7 | -2.0 | 188 | 0.35 | 189 | ||
| 212 | Norfolk St. | 15 | -6.0 | MEAC | 2 | -1.0 | 152 | 0.27 | 213 | |||
| 228 | Miss Valley St. | 16 | -8.0 | SWAC | 1 | -2.0 | 180 | 0.21 | 258 | |||
Glossary
- Seed - The team's seed in the NCAA tournament (if applicable)
- LstWk - The team's ranking from the prior week
- GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored". It's what you'd expect the team to be favored by against a Div-I average opponent at a neutral site.
- Conf - The conference the team plays in and their GPF rank within that conference
- SOS - Stands for "Strength of Schedule". It's the average GPF of the teams faced thus far this season (along with the corresponding rank).
- GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability". I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: GWP = 1/(1+exp(-GPF/6))
- KenPom - The team's rank according to kenpom.com. The best college basketball stats site you're going to find.
- AP - The team's rank (if it exists) according to the AP Top 25 poll.
- Coaches - The team's rank (if it exists) according to the ESPN/USA Today Coaches poll.
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