NBA Team Rankings - January 26, 2012

Here are the Betting Market Power Rankings for January 26, 2012.

These rankings look at the betting lines over the past three weeks and derive an implied power ranking (GPF). With the added information of the over/unders, I'm also able to decompose a team's ranking into offense (oGPF) and defense (dGPF). For more background, see the Methodology page.

I've restructured the table a bit in an attempt to provide greater clarity on the metrics I'm reporting. Ranks have been added for the oGPF, dGPF, and GOU columns. I also added Win/Loss record.

The Thunder have worked their way into the top spot this week, with an 0.5 point advantage over the previous number 1, the Heat. The big mover this week was the Nuggets, who are now at number 4 (up five spots). They are also the clear number one in GOU (Generic Over/Under). At 204 points, that's a full 8 points above the number 2 team, the Heat. The Mavericks reversed their gains from last week, dropping back down to 10th (likely driven by Dirk Nowitzki's absence).

Despite their mediocre win/loss record, which would put them at 14th and 15th best in the league, the Trailblazers and Lakers are ranked much higher in the eyes of the betting market (7th and 8th). Conversely, the market doesn't seem convinced just yet that the Pacers and the Hawks are as good as their record says they are.

The Rankings: (glossary below)

Rank	Team	LstWk	GPF	oGPF		dGPF		GOU		W-L		GWP
1	OKC	2	6.5	5.5	3	1.0	14	194	4	15-3	1	0.73
2	MIA	1	6.0	6.5	2	-0.5	17	196	2	13-5	3	0.72
3	CHI	3	5.5	0.5	15	5.0	1	184	24	16-4	2	0.70
4	DEN	9	4.5	9.5	1	-5.0	29	204	1	13-5	4	0.67
5	ORL	7	4.5	1.0	12	3.5	5	186	21	12-5	5	0.67
6	PHI	4	3.5	1.5	9	2.0	8	188	18	12-6	8	0.64
7	POR	8	3.0	1.0	11	2.0	10	189	17	11-8	14	0.61
8	LAL	6	2.5	-1.5	22	4.0	4	184	26	11-8	15	0.60
9	SAS	10	2.5	3.0	5	-0.5	16	192	8	12-7	9	0.60
10	DAL	5	2.5	-1.5	23	4.0	3	183	27	11-8	13	0.60
11	IND	11	2.0	0.0	17	2.0	9	187	20	12-5	6	0.58
12	MEM	14	1.5	0.5	16	1.0	11	188	19	10-7	12	0.56
13	ATL	12	1.5	-1.5	21	3.0	6	185	23	13-6	7	0.56
14	UTA	16	1.0	1.5	7	-0.5	18	191	12	10-6	10	0.54
15	NYK	17	0.5	2.0	6	-1.5	20	193	7	7-11	21	0.53
16	HOU	18	0.5	3.0	4	-2.5	23	194	3	10-8	16	0.52
17	LAC	15	0.5	1.5	10	-1.0	19	192	11	9-6	11	0.51
18	BOS	13	0.5	-5.0	27	5.5	2	179	30	7-9	18	0.51
19	MIN	19	-1.0	0.5	13	-1.5	21	191	13	8-10	17	0.46
20	MIL	21	-1.0	-2.0	24	1.0	12	186	22	7-10	19	0.46
21	GSW	22	-1.5	1.5	8	-3.0	25	194	5	6-11	22	0.44
22	PHX	20	-2.0	0.5	14	-2.5	22	192	9	6-11	23	0.43
23	NJN	24	-4.0	-1.0	19	-3.0	24	191	15	6-13	24	0.35
24	NOH	26	-4.5	-7.0	30	2.5	7	179	29	3-15	28	0.34
25	CLE	23	-5.0	-1.0	20	-4.0	27	192	10	7-10	20	0.32
26	TOR	25	-5.0	-5.0	28	0.0	15	184	25	6-13	25	0.31
27	DET	27	-5.5	-6.5	29	1.0	13	182	28	4-15	27	0.30
28	SAC	28	-6.0	-1.0	18	-5.0	30	193	6	6-13	26	0.28
29	WAS	30	-6.5	-2.0	25	-4.5	28	191	14	3-15	29	0.28
30	CHA	29	-7.5	-4.0	26	-3.5	26	189	16	3-16	30	0.24

Glossary

lstwk - The BTM ranking from last week.

GPF - Stands for "Generic Points Favored". It's what you would expect the team to be favored by against a league average opponent at a neutral site.

oGPF - Stands for "Offensive Generic Points Favored". The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to score points (per game).

dGPF - Stands for "Defensive Generic Points Favored". The component of a team's total GPF attributable to its ability to prevent the other team from scoring points (per game).

GOU - Stands for "Generic Over/Under". It's what you would expect the betting over/under to be for the given team when playing a league average opponent.

W-L - The team's win/loss record (and win percentage rank)

GWP - Stands for "Generic Win Probability". I converted the GPF into a win probability using the following formula: 1/(1 + exp(-GPF/6.5)).

Additional Key Factors: