Bowl Game Line Predictions
December 29, 2012
The power rankings I create for this site are calibrated to a single purpose: to predict, as closely as possible, point spreads for fu...
Expected Points and Relative Team Strength
December 27, 2012
This is a continuation of a series of posts on in-game cover probability . The purpose of this post is to show how relative team...
Turnover Index - Final 2012 Results
December 27, 2012
Here are the final results for the Turnover Index for the 2012 season. In my original post on the topic , I excluded week 17 games from th...
Turnover Index - Week 16
December 19, 2012
Here are the Turnover Index numbers for Week 16 of the NFL season. The purpose of these weekly posts is to find betting opportunities ...
Turnover Index - Week 15
December 12, 2012
Here are the Turnover Index numbers for Week 15 of the NFL season. The purpose of these weekly posts is to find betting opportunities ...
Turnover Index - Week 14
December 05, 2012
Here are the Turnover Index numbers for Week 14 of the NFL season. The purpose of these weekly posts is to find betting opportunities ...
Alabama - Notre Dame Opening Line
December 02, 2012
In this post , I made a prediction on the point spread and over/under for the two possible BCS title games (Notre Dame vs. Alabama or Georgi...
Today's Games now available for the NBA
December 01, 2012
Now that the NBA rankings are up and running, I can now relaunch the Today's Games feature of this site. Here is a description o...
The Turnover Index - Week 13
November 28, 2012
Here are the Turnover Index numbers for Week 13 of the NFL season. The purpose of these weekly posts is to find betting opportunities ...
Betting Market Analytics vs. The Linemakers
November 27, 2012
While googling line predictions for the BCS Title game for this post , I stumbled across a section of the Sporting News called The Lin...
BCS Title Game - Line Predictions
November 25, 2012
With the BCS Title Game scenarios now down to Georgia-Notre Dame or Alabama-Notre Dame, here are predictions of what the point spread and ov...
The Ticker - NBA and NFL Versions Now Available
November 25, 2012
The Ticker is now available for both the 2012 NFL season and the 2012-2013 NBA season . The Ticker is a feature I first launched for the...
NFL Scoring Margin Distributions
November 25, 2012
This is a follow up from my previous post on building an in-game cover probability model for the NFL . As a first step in ...
NBA Team Rankings Now Available
November 24, 2012
NBA team rankings are now available for the 2012 season. For those of you unfamiliar with my ranking methodology, the goal is to reverse e...
In-Game Cover Probability: A Start
November 23, 2012
This is the first post in what I hope to be a series on the topic of in-game cover probability. I view the idea as an ex...
The Turnover Index - Week 12
November 20, 2012
Here are the Turnover Index numbers for Week 12 of the NFL season. The purpose of these weekly posts is to find betting opportunities ...
The Turnover Index - Week 11
November 14, 2012
Here are the Turnover Index numbers for Week 11 of the NFL season. The purpose of these weekly posts is to find betting opportunities ...
The Turnover Index - Week 10
November 07, 2012
Here are the Turnover Index numbers for Week 10 of the NFL season. The purpose of these weekly posts is to find betting opportunitie...
Ranking Table - Mouseovers
November 05, 2012
In my ongoing effort to crowd 10 pounds of data into a 5 pound bag, I've added some mouseovers to my NFL and NCAA Football rankings th...
The Turnover Index - Week 9
October 31, 2012
Here are the Turnover Index numbers for Week 9 of the NFL season. The purpose of these weekly posts is to find betting opportunities b...
College Football Rankings - Now Updated Daily
October 28, 2012
Over the past few weeks, I had taken several stabs at creating a betting market power ranking for College Football. Now that I've go...
The Turnover Index - Week 8
October 24, 2012
Here are the Turnover Index numbers for Week 8 of the NFL season. The purpose of these weekly posts is to find betting opportunities b...
NFL Rankings - Strength of Schedule
October 20, 2012
At the risk of turning my daily NFL rankings into a cluttered, confusing mess, I have added a couple new columns. Strength of Schedule...
College Football Rankings - Week 8 Update
October 20, 2012
As I mentioned in the comments of my week 8 college football rankings post , the rankings looked a bit out of whack. I...
College Football Rankings - Week 8
October 17, 2012
Here are the betting market rankings for College Football for week 8. See my first post for background and my Methodology...
The Turnover Index - Week 7
October 15, 2012
San Diego and Denver have yet to play, but they are both on bye next week, so I can go ahead and update the Turnover Index with data th...
NFL Rankings - Projected Wins
October 15, 2012
"IT'S A SIMULATION!" There is a new feature added to my daily NFL team rankings . Building off of a suggestion from comme...
College Football Rankings - Week 7 Update
October 13, 2012
My first post on college football rankings was calculated prior to the release of the betting lines for this week's ga...
The Turnover Index - Week 6
October 13, 2012
The Turnover Index got off to a rough start this season. The first and only pick was for Jacksonville to cover the spread as a 6 poin...
College Football Rankings - Week 7
October 07, 2012
The 1892 Alabama Football Team When men were men and hats were hats Here is my first attempt at creating a betting mar...
The Turnover Index - Week 5
October 03, 2012
One of my first posts on this blog was on the topic of NFL Turnover Differential and the Point Spread . In that post, I found that team...
NFL Rankings - Now Updated Daily
September 29, 2012
There is no shortage of NFL power rankings from which to choose these days, of varying quality and usefulness . One unique feature of the r...
NFL Team Rankings - Week 3
September 23, 2012
As promised yesterday, here are the NFL Team Rankings as of Week 3 (with lines updated as of Sunday morning). For those o...
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- The Turnover Index - Week 13
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- In-Game Cover Probability: A Start
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- The Turnover Index - Week 7
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2/3/2013 Update: A more mobile friendly version of the chart: Squares Payouts . My most recent two posts covered the concept of in-game ... -
This post has been in the works for several months now, and is the result of a deep dive into the NBA's SportVU motion tracking data . ... -
In this post I will lay out an approach for measuring clutch play in the NBA, using my win probability model as the underlying framewor...
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